Cov nqi ntawv muag ntau dhau thiab rov qab los, thiab kev vam meej ntawm kev lag luam ntawv tau coj mus rau qhov chaw hloov pauv?
Tsis ntev los no, muaj qee qhov kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam ntawv. A-share Tsingshan Paper (600103.SH), Yueyang Forest Paper (600963.SH), Huatai Stock (600308.SH), thiab Hong Kong-listed Chenming Paper (01812.HK) txhua tus muaj Qee qib kev nce nqi tej zaum yuav cuam tshuam nrog kev nce nqi ntawv tsis ntev los no. lub thawv khoom qab zib
Cov tuam txhab ntawv "nce nqi" lossis "pov hwm tus nqi"
Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, cov ntawv dawb tau nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws ntawm ntau hom ntawv. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv pej xeem, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv tsev ntawm 250g txog 400g ntawv dawb tau poob qis los ntawm 5110 yuan / ton thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau tam sim no 4110 yuan / ton, thiab tseem teeb tsa qis tshiab hauv tsib xyoos dhau los.
Vim tias tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv dawb poob qis tas mus li, txij li Lub Xya Hli 3, qee lub tuam txhab me thiab nruab nrab ntawm cov ntawv dawb hauv Guangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi thiab lwm thaj chaw tau ua tus thawj coj hauv kev tshaj tawm cov ntawv nce nqi. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 6, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam ntawv dawb xws li Bohui Paper thiab Sun Paper kuj tau ua raws li thiab tshaj tawm cov ntawv hloov kho tus nqi, npaj yuav nce tus nqi tam sim no ntawm txhua yam khoom ntawv los ntawm 200 yuan / ton. cov thawv khoom qab zib costco
Qhov laj thawj tom qab tus nqi nce siab tej zaum yuav yog qhov tsis muaj zog. Muaj kev tshaj tawm tias tus nqi thiab tus nqi ntawv ntawm cov ntawv dawb tau qhia txog qhov xwm txheej loj heev, thiab cov tuam txhab ntawv tsuas yog ua tiav lub hom phiaj ntawm kev tiv thaiv qhov kev poob qis los ntawm kev sib koom kho tus nqi.
Qhov tseeb, thaum pib lub Ob Hlis xyoo no, kev lag luam ntawv twb npaj yuav nce tus nqi lawm. Cov tuam txhab ntawv ua lag luam xws li Bohui Paper, Chenming Paper, thiab Wanguo Paper tau ua tus thawj coj hauv kev nce tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv dawb. Tom qab ntawd, Yueyang Forestry thiab Paper tau ua raws li. Cov nthwv dej ntawm kev nce nqi kis tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv ua lag luam mus rau cov tuam txhab ntawv me thiab nruab nrab, tab sis qhov cuam tshuam tom qab tsis zoo tagnrho, thiab qhov cuam tshuam tsaws yog nruab nrab. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog tias qhov kev thov qis dua tsis muaj zog, thiab cov tuam txhab ntawv tsis muaj kev xaiv tab sis yuav tsum nce tus nqi. Qhov tseeb, nws yog los tiv thaiv tus nqi thiab tiv thaiv kev poob qis ntxiv. lub thawv khoom qab zib thiab khoom noj txom ncauj
Kev lag luam ntawv pab ntau yam kev lag luam hauv qab, suav nrog kev siv khoom, kev tsim khoom lag luam, thiab lwm yam. Nws raug suav hais tias yog lub ntsuas ntawm kev lag luam, thiab feem ntau raug suav hais tias yog qhov qhia txog lub zog ntawm kev lag luam. Qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm tus nqi ntawv xyoo no kuj qhia txog qee qhov tias nyob rau hauv qhov chaw ib puag ncig macro tam sim no, cov txheej txheem ntawm kev rov zoo ntawm kev lag luam yuav qis dua qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev ua lag luam. lub thawv khoom qab zib Nyiv
Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv pulp raug kev nyuaj siab
Cov khoom lag luam sab saud ntawm cov ntawv ua lag luam suav nrog kev ua liaj ua teb, kev ua pulping, thiab lwm yam, thiab cov khoom lag luam sab hauv qab suav nrog kev ua ntawv thiab cov khoom ntawv, uas muab faib ua ntawv corrugated, ntawv dawb, ntawv dawb, ntawv kos duab, thiab lwm yam. Hauv tus nqi ntawm kev ua ntawv, tus nqi ntawm pulp suav txog 60% txog 70%, thiab qee hom ntawv txawm tias ncav cuag 85%.khoom qab zib los ntawm lwm lub teb chaws lub thawv
Xyoo tas los no, tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv pulp tseem pheej nce siab heev. Cov ntawv pulp ntoo mos tau nce ntawm 5,950 yuan / ton thaum pib xyoo 2022 mus rau 7,340 yuan / ton thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, nce 23.36%. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov ntawv pulp ntoo tawv tau nce ntawm 5,070 yuan / ton mus rau 6,446 yuan / ton, nce 27.14%. Tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv pulp muaj zog tau ua rau cov tuam txhab ntawv tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tom qab ntawd tsis zoo.
Txij li xyoo 2023 los, kev hloov kho tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv pulp tau ua rau cov tuam txhab ntawv tau so. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv, cov ntawv pulp yav tom ntej tau poob qis los ntawm yuav luag 7,000 yuan / ton thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau kwv yees li 5,000 yuan / ton thiab ruaj khov. Qhov poob qis tshaj qhov kev cia siab.
Qhov laj thawj uas ua rau tus nqi pulp poob qis hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tej zaum yuav yog lub peev xwm tsim khoom loj ntawm cov ntoo tawv ntoo txawv teb chaws. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov yam xws li kev siv qeeb qeeb nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm cov paj laum siab txawv teb chaws kuj tau tsim cov kev txwv pom tseeb rau tus nqi pulp sab saud. Txawm hais tias qee lub chaw tsim pulp tau ua cov kauj ruam los "sawv ntsug tus nqi", qhov cuam tshuam tsis pom tseeb. lub thawv khoom qab zib Japanese txhua hli
Feem ntau cov tsev kawm ntawv tsis muaj kev cia siab txog qhov kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv pulp. Daim Ntawv Tshawb Fawb Shenyin Wanguo ntseeg tias tus qauv ntawm kev muab khoom siv pulp muaj zog thiab kev thov tsis muaj zog txuas ntxiv mus, cov hauv paus tseem ceeb tsis zoo, thiab qhov chaw rov qab los tag nrho yuav raug txwv. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev poob qis yav dhau los tau qhia txog qhov xwm txheej tsis muaj zog tam sim no.
Qhov no kuj zoo li qhia tau tias lub sijhawm phem tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam ntawv tau dhau mus lawm, thiab kev lag luam yuav coj mus rau qhov chaw ntawm kev vam meej. Cov neeg hauv kev lag luam feem ntau ntseeg tias vim muaj kev nyuaj siab rau tus nqi pulp, qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws uas cuam tshuam rau kev vam meej ntawm kev lag luam ntawv tau hloov pauv ntawm sab nqi mus rau sab kev thov dua. cov thawv khoom qab zib los ntawm thoob plaws ntiaj teb
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg, feem ntau cov tuam txhab ntawv ua tau zoo qeeb heev. Sun Paper, uas muaj cov nyiaj tau los ntau tshaj plaws, tau txais txiaj ntsig ntawm 566 lab yuan hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo no, qhov kev poob qis txhua xyoo ntawm 16.21%. Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm niam txiv ntawm Shanying International thiab Chenming Paper yog -341 lab yuan thiab -275 lab yuan, qhov kev poob qis ntawm 270.67% thiab 341.76% txhua xyoo.
Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov kev poob qis ntawm cov pulp siab ua rau muaj kev nyuaj siab rau cov tuam txhab ntawv hauv tsev. Kev lag luam ntawv yuav ua rau muaj ob qho kev nce nqi thiab kev poob qis ntawm tus nqi, thiab kev ua tau zoo yuav rov zoo. Raws li qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev kho, nws yuav raug tshaj tawm hauv daim ntawv qhia ib nrab xyoo ntawm lub tuam txhab cuam tshuam.
Kev teeb tsa sib koom ua ke los txhawb kev sib tw
Kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom siv pulp yeej ib txwm vam khom rau txawv teb chaws, thiab pulp feem ntau yog xa los ntawm Canada, Chile, Tebchaws Meskas, Russia thiab lwm lub teb chaws. Vim muaj cov khoom siv raw khoom nplua nuj rau pulping, Canada yeej ib txwm yog tus tsim cov pulp loj thiab yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm cov pulp xa tuaj rau Suav teb. Cov chaw tsim pulp siv ntau hav zoov thiab ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj rau ib puag ncig. Kev lag luam pulp hauv tsev muaj kev txwv nruj rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam pulp, qhov txwv siab, thiab cov nqi khiav lag luam siab dua li qee lub chaw tsim pulp txawv teb chaws. lub thawv khoom qab zib los ntawm thoob plaws lub ntiaj teb
Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog hais tias nyob rau xyoo tas los no, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev muab cov khoom siv pulp thiab cov nqi siab ntev ntev, lub neej ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv hauv tsev tsis yooj yim, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tau maj mam nthuav dav mus rau sab saud ntawm cov saw hlau kev lag luam, thiab kev sib cais thawj zaug ntawm kev cog ntoo, pulping, Peb qhov txuas ntawm kev ua ntawv tau koom ua ke los txhawb qhov kev teeb tsa ntawm "kev koom ua ke ntawm hav zoov-pulp-ntawv" thiab txhim kho nws tus kheej lub peev xwm muab pulp, yog li kom ntseeg tau tias muaj kev ruaj khov ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom thiab txo cov nqi tsim khoom thiab kev ua haujlwm. lub thawv khoom qab zib chocolate
Muaj ntau lub tuam txhab loj hauv kev lag luam ntawv hauv tebchaws, xws li Chenming Paper thiab Sun Paper, twb tau pib tsim cov qauv tsim nyog lawm. Chenming Paper yog suav hais tias yog lub tuam txhab ntawv thaum ntxov uas tau tsim lub tswv yim "kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov ntawv thiab cov ntawv". Xyoo 2005, Chenming Group tau ua qhov project kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov ntoo thiab cov ntawv hauv Zhanjiang, Guangdong uas tau pom zoo los ntawm Pawg Sab Laj ntawm Lub Xeev. Qhov project no yog qhov project loj loj rau lub tebchaws los txhawb kev tsim kho kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov ntoo, cov ntawv thiab cov ntawv. Nws nyob hauv Leizhou Peninsula ntawm qhov kawg ntawm sab qab teb ntawm Tuam Tshoj. Nws muaj qhov chaw zoo meej hauv kev ua lag luam, kev thauj mus los thiab cov peev txheej. Qhov chaw zoo. Txij thaum ntawd los, Chenming Paper tau xa cov project kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov ntawv thiab cov ntawv hauv Shouguang, Huanggang thiab lwm qhov chaw. Tam sim no, Chenming Paper lub peev xwm tsim cov ntawv ntoo tag nrho tau txog 4.3 lab tons, feem ntau ua tiav qhov sib phim ntawm cov ntawv thiab cov ntawv muaj peev xwm tsim tau.
Tsis tas li ntawd xwb, Sun Paper kuj tseem tab tom tsim nws tus kheej "kab ntawv pulp" hauv Beihai, Guangxi, xa cov ntoo chips los tsim cov pulp, ua rau muaj feem pua ntawm cov pulp uas tsim tau thiab txo cov nqi. Tsis tas li ntawd xwb, lub tuam txhab nquag nthuav dav kev tsim cov chaw cog ntoo txawv teb chaws kom lav tau cov khoom siv raw yav tom ntej. lub thawv saib khoom qab zib
Feem ntau, kev lag luam ntawv zoo li tau tawm ntawm qhov tsis zoo, thiab qee qib ntawv tau pib nce nqi. Yog tias cov txheej txheem rov qab los ntawm qhov kawg dhau qhov kev cia siab, kev lag luam ntawv yuav ntsib qhov chaw hloov pauv hauv nws txoj kev vam meej.
Ob peb xyoos dhau los no, qee lub peev xwm tsim ntawv me thiab nruab nrab thiab qub dhau lawm tau raug tshem tawm tom qab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab txo qis peev xwm. Yav tom ntej, nrog rau qhov sib xyaw ua ke ntawm kev teeb tsa, feem ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv ua lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab cov tuam txhab cuam tshuam yuav coj kev rov qab los ntawm kev ua lag luam thiab kev ntsuas tus nqi ob npaug.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Xya Hli-11-2023
