Mitengo yemapepa yakatengeswa zvakanyanya uye yakawedzera kukwira, uye kubudirira kweindasitiri yemapepa kwakaunza kukwira kukuru?
Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kwave nekuchinja kwakati wandei muchikamu chekugadzira mapepa. A-share Tsingshan Paper (600103.SH), Yueyang Forest Paper (600963.SH), Huatai Stock (600308.SH), uye Hong Kong-listed Chenming Paper (01812.HK) zvese zvine mwero wakati wekuwedzera kunogona kunge kwakabatana nekuwedzera kwemitengo yemapepa munguva pfupi yapfuura. bhokisi rezvingwa zvemasiwiti
Makambani epepa "anokwidza mitengo" kana "kuvimbisa mitengo"
Kubva kutanga kwegore rino, kadhibhodhi chena rave mumamiriro ezvinhu akaipisisa pakati pemhando dzakasiyana dzemapepa. Sekureva kweruzivo rweveruzhinji, avhareji yemutengo wemakadhibhodhi machena emusika wemuno we250g kusvika 400g yaderera kubva pa5110 yuan/tani pakutanga kwegore kusvika pa4110 yuan/tani yazvino, uye ichiri kudzikira patsva mumakore mashanu apfuura.
Vakatarisana nemutengo wemakadhibhodhi machena uchidzikira zvisingaperi, kutanga musi wa3 Chikunguru, mamwe makambani madiki nepakati emakadhibhodhi machena muGuangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi nedzimwe nzvimbo akatungamira mukupa matsamba ekuwedzera mitengo. Musi wa6 Chikunguru, makambani makuru emakambani machena akadai seBohui Paper neSun Paper akateverawo ndokupa matsamba ekugadzirisa mitengo, vachironga kuwedzera mutengo wezvino wezvigadzirwa zvemakadhibhodhi ne200 yuan/tani. mabhokisi emasiwiti eCostco
Chikonzero chekukwira kwemitengo chingave chiri chiito chisina maturo. Zvinonzi mutengo wemakadhibhodhi machena pamwe nemutengo wemapepa zvakaratidza mamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara, uye makambani emapepa anogona chete kuzadzisa chinangwa chekumisa kudzikira uku nekugadzirisa mitengo pamwe chete.
Kutaura zvazviri, pakutanga kwaKukadzi gore rino, indasitiri yemapepa yakanga yatoronga kukwidza mitengo. Makambani makuru emapepa akadai seBohui Paper, Chenming Paper, neWanguo Paper ndiwo akatungamira mukukwidza mutengo wemakadhibhodhi machena. Mushure meizvozvo, Yueyang Forestry and Paper yakatevedzerawo. Kukwira kwemitengo kwakapararira kubva kumakambani makuru emapepa kuenda kumakambani madiki nepakati emapepa, asi mhedzisiro yekuenderera mberi yakanga isina kunaka, uye mhedzisiro yekumhara yakanga iri pakati nepakati. Chikonzero chikuru ndechekuti kudiwa kuri pasi kwakaderera, uye makambani emapepa haana sarudzo kunze kwekukwidza mitengo. Kutaura zvazviri, ndeyekudzivirira mitengo nekudzivirira kudzikira kwemitengo. bhokisi remasiwiti nerekudya zvemazuva ano
Indasitiri yemapepa inoshandira maindasitiri mazhinji ari pasi pemvura, anosanganisira kushandiswa kwezvinhu, kugadzira maindasitiri, nezvimwewo. Inoonekwa sechiratidzo chehupfumi, uye inowanzoonekwa sechiratidzo chekusimba kwehupfumi. Kusasimba kwemitengo yemapepa gore rino kunoratidzawo kuti pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino, maitiro ekudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi anogona kunge akaderera pane zvinotarisirwa nemusika. bhokisi remaswiti echiJapan
Mitengo yepulp pamutengo wayo iri pasi pekumanikidzwa
Chikamu chepamusoro cheindasitiri yekugadzira mapepa chinosanganisira masango, pulping, nezvimwewo, uye chikamu chinotevera chinosanganisira kugadzira mapepa nezvigadzirwa zvemapepa, izvo zvakakamurwa kuita bepa rakakombama, bepa jena rebhodhi, kadhibhodhi jena, bepa reunyanzvi, nezvimwewo. Mumutengo wekugadzira mapepa, mutengo wepulp unosvika 60% kusvika 70%, uye mamwe marudzi emapepa anotosvika 85%.bhokisi remasiwiti anobva kune dzimwe nyika
Mugore rapfuura, mitengo ye pulp yakaramba ichikwira zvakanyanya. Softwood pulp yakakwira kubva pa5,950 yuan/ton pakutanga kwa2022 kusvika pa7,340 yuan/ton pakupera kwegore, kuwedzera kwe23.36%. Munguva imwe cheteyo, hardwood pulp yakakwira kubva pa5,070 yuan/ton kusvika pa6,446 yuan/ton matani, kuwedzera kwe27.14%. Mutengo wakasimba we pulp waderedza purofiti yemakambani epepa, uye pasi payo hapachina kunaka.
Kubva muna 2023, kugadziriswa kwemitengo ye pulp kwakaunza zororo kumakambani epepa. Sekureva kwedata, mitengo ye pulp futures yakaderera kubva pa7,000 yuan/tani pakutanga kwegore kusvika pa5,000 yuan/tani uye yagadzikana. Kuderera uku kwakapfuura zvaitarisirwa.
Chikonzero chekudzikira kwemitengo ye pulp muhafu yekutanga yegore chingave chiri chekukwanisa kukuru kwekugadzira pulp ye hardwood kunze kwenyika. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinhu zvakaita sekunonoka kwekushandisa nekuda kwemitengo yemubereko yakakwira kunze kwenyika zvakagadzirawo zvirambidzo zvakajeka pamitengo ye pulp yepamusoro. Kunyangwe mamwe ma pulp mills akatora matanho ekuti "asimudzire mutengo", mhedzisiro yacho haisi pachena. bhokisi remaswiti echiJapan remwedzi wega wega
Masangano mazhinji haana tariro nezvedanho rinotevera remitengo yepulp. Shenyin Wanguo Research Report inotenda kuti maitiro ekuwanikwa kwepulp kwakasimba uye kudiwa kushoma kuri kuenderera mberi, zvinhu zvakakosha zviri kuderera, uye nzvimbo yese yekudzokera shure inotarisirwa kuva mishoma. Zvisinei, kudzikira kwekare kwakaratidza mamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino asina kusimba.
Izvi zvinoita sezviri kuratidzawo kuti nguva yakaipa zvikuru muindasitiri yemapepa yapfuura, uye indasitiri iyi inogona kuunza kukwira kwehupfumi. Vanhu vari muindasitiri iyi vanowanzo tenda kuti nekuda kwekumanikidzwa kwemitengo yemapepa, chinhu chikuru chinokanganisa kubudirira kweindasitiri yemapepa chakachinja kubva kudivi remutengo kuenda kudivi rekudiwa zvakare. mabhokisi emasiwiti kubva kumativi ose enyika
Kubva pamaonero echikamu chekutanga, mashandiro emakambani mazhinji epepa ari kunonoka. Sun Paper, iyo ine mari yakawanda, yakawana purofiti ye566 miriyoni yuan muchikamu chekutanga chegore rino, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe16.21%. Muchikamu chekutanga, purofiti yakakonzerwa nekambani yeShanying International neChenming Paper yaive -341 miriyoni yuan uye -275 miriyoni yuan, kudzikira kukuru kwe270.67% uye 341.76% gore negore.
Muhafu yekutanga yegore, kudzikira kwehuwandu hwemapepa epurasitiki kwakaderedza zvakanyanya kumanikidzwa kwemakambani epepa emuno. Bazi rekugadzira mapepa rinogona kukonzera kuwedzera kwemitengo nekuderera kwemitengo, uye mashandiro anotarisirwa kudzoreredzwa. Nezvemamiriro ekugadzirisa, zvichaziviswa mumushumo wehafu yegore wekambani yakakodzera.
Kurongeka kwakabatana kusimbisa makwikwi
Kuwanikwa kwepump munyika yangu kwagara kuchitsamira zvakanyanya kune dzimwe nyika, uye pulp inonyanya kutengwa kubva kuCanada, Chile, United States, Russia nedzimwe nyika. Nekuda kwehupfumi hwezvinhu zvekugadzira pulp, Canada yagara iri mugadziri mukuru wepump uye imwe yenzvimbo dzakakosha dzepump inotengwa kunze kwenyika muChina. Pulp mills inodya masango akawanda uye inokonzera kukuvadza nharaunda. Indasitiri yepump yemuno ine zvirambidzo zvakasimba pakukura kweindasitiri yepump, muganho wakakwira, uye mari yekushanda yakakwira kupfuura mamwe ma pulp mills ekunze. masiwiti kubva kubhokisi repasi rese
Zvakakosha kutaura kuti mumakore achangopfuura, nekuda kwekushaikwa kwepuripu inotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye mitengo yakakwira kwenguva yakareba, hupenyu hwemakambani emapepa emuno hauna kunge huri nyore, makambani anotungamira akawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kusvika kumusoro kwecheni yemaindasitiri, uye kupatsanurwa kwekutanga kwekudyara miti, pulping, Masangano matatu ekugadzira mapepa akabatanidzwa kukurudzira kurongeka kwepurojekiti ye "kubatanidzwa kwemasango-pulp-paper" uye kusimudzira kugona kwayo kwekupa pulp, kuitira kuve nechokwadi chekugadzikana kwecheni yekugovera zvinhu uye kuderedza mari yekugadzira nekushanda. bhokisi remasiwiti echokoreti
Vatambi vakuru vakati wandei muindasitiri yemapepa emuno, vakaita seChenming Paper neSun Paper, vatotanga kuronga zvinoenderana. Chenming Paper inoonekwa sekambani yekutanga yepepa yakatanga hurongwa hwe "kubatanidza pulp nepepa". Muna 2005, Chenming Group yakatanga chirongwa chekubatanidza masango nepulp-paper muZhanjiang, Guangdong chakatenderwa neHurumende yeHurumende. Chirongwa ichi chirongwa chikuru chakakosha chekusimudzira kuvaka kwakabatana kwemasango, pulp nepepa. Iri muLeizhou Peninsula kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweChina. Ine zvakanakira zviri pachena pamusika, kutakura uye zviwanikwa. Nzvimbo yakanaka. Kubva ipapo, Chenming Paper yave ichiisa mapurojekiti ekubatanidza pulp nepepa muShouguang, Huanggang nedzimwe nzvimbo. Parizvino, kugona kwese kwekugadzira pulp nepepa muChenming Paper kwasvika matani mamiriyoni 4.3, zvichireva kuti kugona kwekugadzira pulp nepepa kwakaenzana.
Pamusoro pezvo, Sun Paper iri kuvakawo "mutsara wayo wepulp" muBeihai, Guangxi, ichitenga machipisi ehuni kuti igadzire pulp, zvichiwedzera huwandu hwepulp inogadzirwa yoga uye zvichideredza mitengo. Pamusoro pezvo, kambani iri kuwedzera kuvakwa kwemasango emasango kunze kwenyika kuti ipe vimbiso yekuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa mune ramangwana. masiwiti ebhokisi
Kazhinji, indasitiri yemapepa inoita kunge iri kubuda mumusika, uye mamwe mamakisi emapepa atanga kukwira mumitengo. Kana nzira yekudzoreredza zvinhu ikapfuura zvaitarisirwa, indasitiri yemapepa inogona kusangana nenguva yekubudirira kwayo.
Mumakore mashoma apfuura, mamwe madiki, epakati nepakati uye ekare ekugadzira mapepa akabviswa mushure mekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza uye kudzikiswa kwesimba rekugadzira. Mune ramangwana, nemaitiro ekubatanidza magadzirirwo, musika wemakambani makuru epepa unotarisirwa kuramba uchikwira, uye makambani ane hukama anogona kudzoreredza kaviri purofiti uye kukosha kwemari.
Nguva yekutumira: Chikunguru-11-2023
