Amanani ephepha athengiswa ngokweqile futhi akhuphuka, kanti ukuchuma kwemboni yephepha kwaholela eqophelweni lokunyuka kwentengo?

Amanani ephepha athengiswa ngokweqile futhi akhuphuka, kanti ukuchuma kwemboni yephepha kwaholela eqophelweni lokunyuka kwentengo?

Muva nje, kube nezinguquko ezithile emkhakheni wokwenza amaphepha. I-A-share Tsingshan Paper (600103.SH), i-Yueyang Forest Paper (600963.SH), i-Huatai Stock (600308.SH), kanye ne-Hong Kong-listed Chenming Paper (01812.HK) zonke zinezinga elithile lokwenyuka lingase lihlobane nokwenyuka kwamanani ephepha kwakamuva. ibhokisi lokudla okulula kwamaswidi

Izinkampani zephepha "zikhuphula amanani" noma "ziqinisekisa amanani"

Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, ikhadibhodi elimhlophe libe sesimweni esibi kakhulu phakathi kwezinhlobo ezahlukene zephepha. Ngokusho kwedatha yomphakathi, intengo yemakethe yasekhaya ephakathi kuka-250g kuya ku-400g ikhadibhodi elimhlophe yehle isuka ku-5110 yuan/ton ekuqaleni konyaka yaya ku-4110 yuan/ton yamanje, futhi isabeka amazinga amasha aphansi eminyakeni emihlanu edlule.

Bebhekene nentengo yekhadibhodi elimhlophe ehla ngokungapheli, kusukela mhla zi-3 kuJulayi, ezinye izinkampani ezincane neziphakathi zamakhadibhodi amhlophe eGuangdong, eJiangsu, eJiangxi nakwezinye izifunda zahola ekukhipheni izincwadi zokwenyusa intengo. Ngomhla zi-6 kuJulayi, imboni yamakhadibhodi amhlophe ehamba phambili i-Amabhizinisi afana neBohui Paper kanye neSun Paper nawo alandele futhi akhipha izincwadi zokulungisa intengo, ehlela ukukhulisa intengo yamanje yayo yonke imikhiqizo yamakhadibhodi ngama-yuan angu-200/ton. amabhokisi eswidi e-costco

Isizathu sokwenyuka kwentengo kungaba yisinyathelo esingenakusiza. Kubikwa ukuthi izindleko kanye nentengo yephepha lekhadibhodi elimhlophe kubonise isimo esibi kakhulu, futhi izinkampani zephepha zingafinyelela umgomo wokumisa ukwehla ngokushintshanisa amanani ngokubambisana.

Eqinisweni, ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari kulo nyaka, imboni yephepha yayivele ihlela ukuphakamisa amanani. Izinkampani eziphambili zephepha ezifana neBohui Paper, Chenming Paper, kanye neWanguo Paper zahola ekuphakamiseni intengo yekhadibhodi elimhlophe. Ngemva kwalokho, iYueyang Forestry and Paper yalandela okufanayo. Igagasi lokwenyuka kwentengo lasakazeka kusukela ezinkampanini eziphambili zephepha kuya ezinkampanini ezincane neziphakathi zephepha, kodwa umphumela wokulandelela wawungemuhle, futhi umphumela wokufika wawungajwayelekile. Isizathu esiyinhloko ukuthi isidingo esingezansi sibuthakathaka, futhi izinkampani zephepha azinakukhetha ngaphandle kokuphakamisa amanani. Eqinisweni, kuwukuvikela amanani nokuvimbela ukwehla kwentengo okuqhubekayo. ibhokisi lamaswidi nelokudla okulula

Imboni yephepha ikhonza izimboni eziningi ezisezansi, okuhlanganisa ukusetshenziswa, ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni, njll. Ibhekwa njengesilinganiso somnotho, futhi ivame ukubhekwa njengesibonakaliso sokubhekisela kwamandla ezomnotho. Umkhuba obuthakathaka wamanani ephepha kulo nyaka ubonisa futhi ngezinga elithile ukuthi ngaphansi kwesimo samanje se-macro, inqubo yokululama komnotho ingaba ngaphansi kokulindelekile emakethe. ibhokisi likaswidi laseJapan

Amanani e-pulp ekugcineni kwezindleko angaphansi kwengcindezi

Ingxenye ephezulu yochungechunge lwemboni yokwenza amaphepha ihlanganisa amahlathi, ukugaya, njll., kanti ingxenye engezansi ihlanganisa ukwenza amaphepha kanye nemikhiqizo yephepha, ehlukaniswe ngephepha elihlanganisiwe, iphepha elimhlophe lebhodi, ikhadibhodi elimhlophe, iphepha lobuciko, njll. Ezindleko zokwenza amaphepha, izindleko ze-pulp zifinyelela ku-60% kuya ku-70%, kanti ezinye izinhlobo zephepha zifinyelela ngisho naku-85%.ibhokisi lamaswidi avela kwamanye amazwe

Ngonyaka odlule, amanani e-pulp aqhubekile nokusebenza ngezinga eliphezulu. I-Softwood pulp ikhuphuke isuka ku-5,950 yuan/ton ekuqaleni kuka-2022 yaya ku-7,340 yuan/ton ekupheleni konyaka, okuwukwenyuka kwama-23.36%. Phakathi naleso sikhathi esifanayo, i-hardwood pulp ikhuphuke isuka ku-5,070 yuan/ton yaya ku-6,446 yuan/ton ton, okuwukwenyuka kwama-27.14%. Intengo enamandla ye-pulp inciphise inzuzo yezinkampani zephepha, futhi okuphansi kuyadabukisa.

Kusukela ngo-2023, ukulungiswa kwentengo ye-pulp kulethe ikhefu ezinkampanini zephepha. Ngokusho kwedatha, ikusasa le-pulp lehle lisuka cishe kuma-yuan angu-7,000/ton ekuqaleni konyaka laya cishe kuma-yuan angu-5,000/ton futhi lazinza. Ukwehla kudlule okulindelwe.

Isizathu sokuwa kwentengo ye-pulp engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka kungaba amandla amakhulu okukhiqiza i-pulp yokhuni lwaphesheya kwezilwandle. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izici ezifana nokusetshenziswa kancane ngaphansi kwesizinda sezinga lenzalo eliphezulu laphesheya kwezilwandle nazo zakhe imingcele ecacile emananini e-pulp aphezulu. Nakuba ezinye izinkampani ze-pulp zithathe izinyathelo "zokumela intengo", umphumela awubonakali. ibhokisi lamaswidi laseJapan lanyanga zonke

Izikhungo eziningi azinalo ithemba mayelana nomkhuba wokulandelela amanani e-pulp. Umbiko Wocwaningo lwe-Shenyin Wanguo ukholelwa ukuthi iphethini yokuhlinzekwa kwe-pulp enamandla kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka iyaqhubeka, izisekelo ziyaguquguquka, futhi isikhala sokubuya kabusha kulindeleke ukuthi silinganiselwe. Kodwa-ke, ukwehla kwangaphambilini kubonise ngokuyisisekelo isimo samanje esibuthakathaka.

Lokhu kubonakala sengathi kukhombisa ukuthi isikhathi esibi kakhulu embonini yamaphepha sesidlulile, futhi imboni ingase ilethe izinga lokuchuma. Abantu embonini ngokuvamile bakholelwa ukuthi ngenxa yokucindezela kwamanani e-pulp, isici esiyinhloko esithinta ukuchuma kwemboni yamaphepha sesishintshe kusukela ohlangothini lwezindleko kuya ohlangothini lokufunwa futhi.  amabhokisi amaswidi avela emhlabeni wonke

Ngokombono wekota yokuqala, ukusebenza kwezinkampani eziningi zephepha kuhamba kancane. I-Sun Paper, enesilinganiso esikhulu semali engenayo, ithole inzuzo eyizigidi ezingama-566 zama-yuan kwikota yokuqala yalo nyaka, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka okungu-16.21%. Kwikota yokuqala, inzuzo eyizigidi ezibangwa ngumzali we-Shanying International kanye ne-Chenming Paper yayiyizigidi ezingama-341 zama-yuan kanye nezigidi ezingama-275 zama-yuan, ukwehla okukhulu okungu-270.67% kanye no-341.76% unyaka nonyaka.

Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukwehla kwezinga eliphezulu le-pulp kulethe ukwehla okukhulu kwengcindezi ezinkampanini zamaphepha zasekhaya. Umkhakha wokwenza amaphepha ungase ubangele ukwenyuka kwamanani kanye nokwehla kwezindleko, futhi ukusebenza kulindeleke ukuthi kubuyele esimweni esijwayelekile. Ngokuphathelene nesimo sokulungiswa, kuzomenyezelwa embikweni wengxenye yonyaka wenkampani efanele.

Ukuhlelwa okuhlanganisiwe ukuqinisa ukuncintisana

Ukutholakala kwe-pulp ezweni lami bekulokhu kuncike kakhulu emazweni angaphandle, futhi i-pulp ingeniswa kakhulu ivela eCanada, eChile, e-United States, eRussia nakwamanye amazwe. Ngenxa yemithombo ecebile yezinto zokusetshenziswa zokugaya, iCanada ibilokhu ingumkhiqizi omkhulu we-pulp futhi ingenye yemithombo ebalulekile ye-pulp engenisiwe eShayina. Ama-pulp mill adla amahlathi amaningi futhi abangela umonakalo emvelweni. Imboni ye-pulp yasekhaya inemikhawulo eqinile ekuthuthukisweni kwemboni ye-pulp, umkhawulo uphakeme, futhi izindleko zokusebenza ziphakeme ngisho nakweminye imishini ye-pulp yakwamanye amazwe. uswidi ovela emhlabeni wonke ebhokisini

Kuyafaneleka ukusho ukuthi eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngaphansi kwesizinda sokulethwa okuncane kwe-pulp engenisiwe kanye namanani aphezulu isikhathi eside, impilo yezinkampani zamaphepha zasekhaya ayizange ibe lula, izinkampani ezihamba phambili ziye zanda kancane kancane zaya phezulu kochungechunge lwezimboni, kanye nokuhlukaniswa kokuqala kokutshala amahlathi, ukugaya, Izixhumanisi ezintathu zokwenza amaphepha zihlanganisiwe ukukhuthaza ukwakheka kwephrojekthi "yokuhlanganiswa kwamahlathi-i-pulp-paper" futhi kuthuthukiswe umthamo wayo wokuphakelwa kwe-pulp, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuzinza kochungechunge lokuphakelwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokunciphisa izindleko zokukhiqiza nokusebenza. ibhokisi lamaswidi kashokoledi

Abadlali abaningana ababalulekile embonini yephepha yasekhaya, njengeChenming Paper kanye neSun Paper, sebeqalile kakade ukuhlela okufanele. I-Chenming Paper ibhekwa njengenkampani yokuqala yephepha eyaqala isu "lokuhlanganisa ama-pulp kanye nephepha". Ngo-2005, i-Chenming Group yaqala iphrojekthi yokuhlanganisa amahlathi nama-pulp-paper eZhanjiang, eGuangdong eyavunywa yiMkhandlu Wezwe. Lo msebenzi uwumsebenzi omkhulu obalulekile wezwe ukukhuthaza ukwakhiwa okuhlanganisiwe kwamahlathi, ama-pulp kanye nephepha. Itholakala eLeizhou Peninsula engxenyeni eseningizimu yezwekazi laseShayina. Inezinzuzo ezisobala zendawo ngokwemakethe, ezokuthutha kanye nezinsiza. Indawo enhle. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, i-Chenming Paper iye yasakaza ngokulandelana amaphrojekthi okuhlanganisa ama-pulp kanye nephepha eShouguang, eHuanggang nakwezinye izindawo. Njengamanje, umthamo wokukhiqiza ama-pulp ezinkuni we-Chenming Paper usufinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.3, ngokuyisisekelo ifinyelela ukulingana kwamandla okukhiqiza ama-pulp kanye nephepha.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Sun Paper nayo yakha “umugqa wayo we-pulp” e-Beihai, e-Guangxi, ingenisa ama-chips okhuni ukuze ikhiqize i-pulp, okwandisa inani le-pulp ezikhiqizela yona futhi kunciphisa izindleko. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkampani yandisa ngenkuthalo ukwakhiwa kwezisekelo zamahlathi aphesheya kwezilwandle ukuze inikeze isiqinisekiso sokutholakala kwezinto zokusetshenziswa esikhathini esizayo. uswidi webhokisi lokuhlola

Sekukonke, imboni yamaphepha ibonakala sengathi iphuma emgodleni, futhi amanye amamaki ephepha aseqalile ukukhuphuka ngentengo. Uma inqubo yokululama engezansi idlula okulindelwe, imboni yamaphepha ingase ibhekane nephuzu lokukhula ekuchumeni kwayo.

Eminyakeni embalwa edlule, amandla amancane okukhiqiza amaphepha amancane naphakathi nendawo futhi aphelelwe yisikhathi asusiwe ngemuva kokuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nokunciphisa amandla. Esikhathini esizayo, ngenxa yomkhuba wokuhlelwa okuhlanganisiwe, isabelo semakethe sezinkampani eziphambili zephepha kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke nokukhula, futhi izinkampani ezihlobene nazo zingase zilethe ukubuyiselwa kabili kwenzuzo kanye nokuhlolwa kwenani.