Amaxabiso ephepha athengiswa kakhulu aze aphinda anyuka, kwaye ukuchuma kweshishini lephepha kwakhokelela kwinqanaba lokunyuka kwexabiso?
Kutshanje, kubekho utshintsho oluthile kwicandelo lokwenza amaphepha. Iphepha le-A-share Tsingshan (600103.SH), iYueyang Forest Paper (600963.SH), iHuatai Stock (600308.SH), kunye neChenming Paper (01812.HK) ezidweliswe eHong Kong zonke zinezinga elithile lokunyuka okunxulumene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ephepha kutshanje. ibhokisi yesidlo seswiti
Iinkampani zephepha "zinyusa amaxabiso" okanye "ziqinisekisa amaxabiso"
Ukususela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, ikhadibhodi emhlophe ibikwimeko embi kakhulu phakathi kweentlobo ngeentlobo zephepha. Ngokwedatha yoluntu, ixabiso eliphakathi lemarike yasekhaya eliphakathi kwe-250g ukuya kwi-400g ikhadibhodi emhlophe liye lehla ukusuka kwi-5110 yuan/ton ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kwi-4110 yuan/ton yangoku, kwaye lisabeka amaxabiso amatsha aphantsi kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo.
Bejongene nexabiso lekhadibhodi emhlophe elihla ngokungapheliyo, ukususela nge-3 kaJulayi, ezinye iinkampani ezincinci neziphakathi zekhadibhodi emhlophe eGuangdong, eJiangsu, eJiangxi nakwezinye iindawo zikhokele ekukhupheni iileta zokunyusa amaxabiso. Ngomhla wesi-6 kaJulayi, amashishini aphambili kushishino lwekhadibhodi emhlophe afana neBohui Paper kunye neSun Paper nawo alandele kwaye akhupha iileta zokulungisa amaxabiso, eceba ukunyusa ixabiso langoku lazo zonke iimveliso zekhadibhodi ngama-200 yuan/toni. iibhokisi zelekese ze-costco
Isizathu sokonyuka kwamaxabiso sisenokuba sisenzo esingenakunceda. Kubikwa ukuba iindleko kunye nexabiso lephepha lekhadibhodi emhlophe zibonakalise imeko embi kakhulu, kwaye iinkampani zephepha zinokufikelela kuphela kwinjongo yokumisa ukwehla ngokulungisa amaxabiso kunye.
Enyanisweni, ekuqaleni kukaFebruwari kulo nyaka, ishishini lephepha lalisele liceba ukunyusa amaxabiso. Iinkampani eziphambili zephepha ezifana neBohui Paper, Chenming Paper, kunye neWanguo Paper zakhokela ekunyuseni ixabiso lekhadibhodi emhlophe. Emva koko, iYueyang Forestry and Paper yalandela. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwasasazeka ukusuka kwiinkampani eziphambili zephepha ukuya kwiinkampani ezincinci neziphakathi zephepha, kodwa isiphumo sokulandelelana sasingafanelekanga, kwaye isiphumo sokufika sasiphakathi. Isizathu esiphambili kukuba imfuno ephantsi ibuthathaka, kwaye iinkampani zephepha azinandlela ngaphandle kokunyusa amaxabiso. Enyanisweni, kukukhusela amaxabiso nokuthintela ukwehla kwamaxabiso okungakumbi. ibhokisi yeelekese kunye nesnack
Ishishini lephepha linceda amashishini amaninzi asezantsi, kuquka ukusetyenziswa, ukuveliswa kwemveliso yemizi-mveliso, njl. Lithathwa njengebharometha yoqoqosho, kwaye lihlala lithathwa njengesalathiso samandla oqoqosho. Ubuthathaka bamaxabiso ephepha kulo nyaka bukwabonisa ukuba phantsi kwemeko-bume yangoku, inkqubo yokubuyiselwa koqoqosho inokuba phantsi kunolindelo lwemarike. ibhokisi yelekese yaseJapan
Amaxabiso eepulp ekupheleni kweendleko aphantsi koxinzelelo
Umthombo ophezulu woshishino lokwenza amaphepha uquka amahlathi, ukugaya, njl.njl., kwaye umlambo ongezantsi uquka ukwenza amaphepha kunye neemveliso zephepha, ezahlulwe zibe yiphepha elirhabaxa, iphepha lebhodi emhlophe, ikhadibhodi emhlophe, iphepha lobugcisa, njl. Kwixabiso lokwenza amaphepha, ixabiso lepulp libalelwa kwi-60% ukuya kwi-70%, kwaye ezinye iintlobo zephepha zifikelela kwi-85%.ibhokisi yeelekese ezivela kwamanye amazwe
Kunyaka ophelileyo, amaxabiso e-pulp aqhubekile nokusebenza kwinqanaba eliphezulu. I-Softwood pulp inyuke ukusuka kwi-5,950 yuan/ton ekuqaleni kuka-2022 ukuya kwi-7,340 yuan/ton ekupheleni konyaka, ukunyuka kwe-23.36%. Kwixesha elifanayo, i-hardwood pulp inyuke ukusuka kwi-5,070 yuan/ton ukuya kwi-6,446 yuan/ton tons, ukunyuka kwe-27.14%. Ixabiso elinamandla le-pulp licinezele inzuzo yeenkampani zephepha, kwaye ukwehla komlambo kubi.
Ukususela ngo-2023, ukulungiswa kwamaxabiso e-pulp kuzise ikhefu kwiinkampani zephepha. Ngokwedatha, i-pulp futures yehle ukusuka kwi-7,000 yuan/ton ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kwi-5,000 yuan/ton kwaye yazinza. Ukuhla kudlule oko bekulindelwe.
Isizathu sokuwa kwamaxabiso e-pulp kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka sisenokuba ngumthamo omkhulu wemveliso ye-hardwood pulp yaphesheya. Ukongeza, izinto ezifana nokusetyenziswa kancinci phantsi kwemvelaphi yenzala ephezulu yaphesheya ziye zenza imida ecacileyo kumaxabiso e-pulp anyukayo. Nangona ezinye ii-pulp mills zithathe amanyathelo "okumelana nexabiso", isiphumo asibonakali. ibhokisi yelekese yaseJapan yenyanga
Uninzi lwamaziko alunathemba malunga nendlela elandelayo yamaxabiso e-pulp. Ingxelo yoPhando lweShenyin Wanguo ikholelwa ukuba iphethini yokunikezelwa kwe-pulp enamandla kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka iyaqhubeka, iziseko ziyancipha, kwaye indawo yokubuyela umva iyonke kulindeleke ukuba inciphe. Nangona kunjalo, ukuhla kwangaphambili kubonakalise imeko yangoku ebuthathaka.
Oku kubonakala ngathi lixesha elibi kakhulu kushishino lwephepha lidlulile, kwaye olu shishino lunokungenisa inqanaba lokunyuka kwempumelelo. Abantu abakwishishini ngokubanzi bakholelwa ukuba ngenxa yoxinzelelo lwamaxabiso e-pulp, into ephambili echaphazela impumelelo yoshishino lwephepha itshintshe ukusuka kwicala leendleko ukuya kwicala lemfuno kwakhona. iibhokisi zeelekese ezivela kwihlabathi liphela
Ngokwembono yekota yokuqala, ukusebenza kweenkampani ezininzi zephepha kuyacotha. I-Sun Paper, enengeniso enkulu, ifumene inzuzo eyi-566 yezigidi zeeyuan kwikota yokuqala yalo nyaka, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwe-16.21%. Kwikota yokuqala, inzuzo eyi-intanethi ebangelwe ngumzali weShanying International kunye neChenming Paper yayiyi--341 yezigidi zeeyuan kunye ne--275 yezigidi zeeyuan, ukwehla okukhulu kwe-270.67% kunye ne-341.76% unyaka nonyaka.
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ukwehla kwenqanaba eliphezulu le-pulp kuzise ukwehla okukhulu koxinzelelo kwiinkampani zamaphepha zasekhaya. Icandelo lokwenza amaphepha linokubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokwehla kweendleko, kwaye ukusebenza kulindeleke ukuba kubuyele esiqhelweni. Ngokuphathelele imeko yokulungiswa, kuya kubhengezwa kwingxelo yonyaka wesiqingatha senkampani efanelekileyo.
Uyilo oludibeneyo lokuqinisa ukhuphiswano
Ukunikezelwa kwe-pulp yelizwe lam bekusoloko kuxhomekeke kakhulu kumazwe angaphandle, kwaye i-pulp ingeniswa kakhulu evela eKhanada, eChile, eMelika, eRashiya nakwamanye amazwe. Ngenxa yemithombo etyebileyo yezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo zokugaya, iKhanada ibisoloko ingumvelisi omkhulu we-pulp kwaye yenye yemithombo ebalulekileyo ye-pulp engeniswa eTshayina. Ii-pulp mills zitya amahlathi amaninzi kwaye zibangela umonakalo kwindalo esingqongileyo. Ishishini le-pulp yasekhaya linemiqathango engqongqo kuphuhliso lweshishini le-pulp, umda uphezulu, kwaye iindleko zokusebenza ziphezulu nangakumbi kunezinye ii-pulp mills zangaphandle. iilekese ezivela kwihlabathi liphela
Kuyafaneleka ukukhankanya ukuba kwiminyaka yakutshanje, phantsi kwemvelaphi yokunikezelwa okuncinci kwepulp evela kwamanye amazwe kunye namaxabiso aphezulu ixesha elide, ubomi beenkampani zephepha zasekhaya abuzange bube lula, iinkampani eziphambili ziye zanda kancinci kancinci zaya phezulu kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso, kwaye ulwahlulo lokuqala lokutshala amahlathi, ukukhupha, Amakhonkco amathathu okwenza iphepha adityanisiwe ukukhuthaza uyilo lweprojekthi "yokudibanisa amahlathi-ipulp-paper" kunye nokuphucula amandla ayo okubonelela ngepulp, ukuqinisekisa uzinzo lwekhonkco lokubonelela ngezinto eziluhlaza kunye nokunciphisa ngakumbi iindleko zemveliso kunye nokusebenza. ibhokisi yeelekese zetshokholethi
Abadlali abaphambili abaninzi kushishino lwephepha lasekhaya, njengeChenming Paper kunye neSun Paper, sele beqalile uyilo olufanelekileyo. IChenming Paper ithathwa njengenkampani yokuqala yephepha eyaqalisa icebo "lokudibanisa ipulp kunye nephepha". Ngo-2005, iChenming Group yaqalisa iprojekthi yokudibanisa amahlathi kunye nepulp-paper eZhanjiang, eGuangdong eyavunywa yiBhunga leSizwe. Le projekthi yiprojekthi enkulu ebalulekileyo yelizwe yokukhuthaza ukwakhiwa okudibeneyo kwamahlathi, ipulp kunye nephepha. IkwiLeizhou Peninsula kwincopho emazantsi eTshayina. Inezibonelelo ezicacileyo zendawo ngokwemarike, uthutho kunye nezixhobo. Indawo entle. Ukususela ngoko, iChenming Paper iye yasasaza ngokulandelelana iiprojekthi zokudibanisa ipulp kunye nephepha eShouguang, eHuanggang nakwezinye iindawo. Okwangoku, amandla emveliso yepulp yomthi yeChenming Paper afikelele kwi-4.3 yezigidi zeetoni, ngokusisiseko ifezekisa ukuhambelana kwamandla emveliso yepulp kunye nephepha.
Ukongeza, iSun Paper ikwakha "umgca wayo wepulp" eBeihai, eGuangxi, ingenisa iitships zomthi ukuvelisa ipulp, nto leyo enyusa umlinganiselo wepulp ezizivelisela yona kwaye inciphisa iindleko. Ukongeza, inkampani iyandisa ngokukhutheleyo ukwakhiwa kweziseko zamahlathi aphesheya ukuze inike isiqinisekiso sobonelelo lwezixhobo ezikrwada kwixesha elizayo. ilekese yebhokisi
Lilonke, ishishini lephepha libonakala ngathi liphuma kwimveliso yalo, kwaye amanye amanqanaba ephepha aqalile ukunyuka ngexabiso. Ukuba inkqubo yokubuyisela izinto idlula oko bekulindelwe, ishishini lephepha linokufumana inqanaba lokunyuka kwempumelelo yalo.
Kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, amandla okuvelisa amaphepha amancinci naphakathi naphelelwe lixesha asusiwe emva kokukhuselwa kokusingqongileyo kunye nokunciphisa amandla. Kwixesha elizayo, ngenxa yendlela yokwakheka okudibeneyo, isabelo semarike seenkampani eziphambili zephepha kulindeleke ukuba siqhubeke sikhula, kwaye iinkampani ezinxulumene noko zinokubuyisela kabini inzuzo kunye noxabiso.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Julayi-11-2023
