Kwatanta rahotannin kuɗi na manyan kamfanonin jaridu guda uku na gida: Shin canjin yanayin aiki a 2023 yana zuwa?
Jagora: A halin yanzu, farashin ɓawon itace ya shiga cikin mawuyacin hali, kuma ana sa ran za a inganta raguwar riba da raguwar aikin da hauhawar farashin da aka samu a baya.
Zhongshun Jierou zai samu kudin shiga na aiki na yuan biliyan 8.57 a shekarar 2022, raguwar shekara-shekara da kashi 6.34%; ribar da masu hannun jari na kamfanonin da aka lissafa ke samu ta kai kimanin yuan miliyan 350, raguwar shekara-shekara da kashi 39.77%.
Kamfanin Vinda International zai samu kudin shiga na HK $19.418 biliyan a shekarar 2022, karuwar kashi 3.97% a shekara bayan shekara; ribar da kamfanin iyaye ya samu ta dala miliyan HK $706, raguwar kashi 56.91% a shekara bayan shekara.
Dangane da dalilan raguwar aiki, Vinda International ta ce baya ga tasirin annobar a shekarar 2022, ci gaba da hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi zai yi mummunan tasiri ga aikin kamfanin.
Kamfanin Hengan International zai samu kudin shiga na yuan biliyan 22.616 a shekarar 2022, karuwar kashi 8.8% a shekara bayan shekara; ribar da masu hannun jarin kamfanin za su samu za ta kai yuan biliyan 1.925, raguwar kashi 41.2% a shekara bayan shekara.
akwatin kukis
Daga mahangar rabon kudaden shiga, harkar tawul ɗin takarda koyaushe ita ce babbar kasuwancin Hengan International. A shekarar 2022, wannan kasuwancin na Hengan International zai yi kyau sosai. A shekarar 2022, kudaden shiga na tallace-tallace na kasuwancin tawul ɗin takarda na Hengan International zai ƙaru da kusan kashi 24.4% zuwa yuan biliyan 12.248, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 54.16% na jimillar kudaden shiga na ƙungiyar; ya kai yuan biliyan 9.842 a daidai wannan lokacin a bara, wanda ya kai kashi 47.34%.
Idan aka yi la'akari da rahotannin shekara-shekara na 2022 da kamfanonin takarda uku suka bayyana, raguwar aikin ya faru ne galibi saboda hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi.
Bayanan da aka samu daga SunSirs sun nuna cewa tun daga shekarar 2022, farashin fulawar itace mai laushi da fulawar itace, wato kayan da ake amfani da su wajen yin fulawar itace, ya yi tashin gwauron zabi. Matsakaicin farashin fulawar itace mai laushi a Shandong ya taɓa tashi zuwa yuan 7750 a kowace tan, kuma fulawar itace ta taɓa tashi zuwa yuan 6700 a kowace tan.
A ƙarƙashin matsin lambar hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi, ayyukan manyan kamfanonin takarda suma sun ragu, kuma har yanzu masana'antar tana fuskantar ƙalubale masu yawa.
01. Karin farashin yana da wuya a daidaita karuwar kayan masarufi
Kayan da ake amfani da su wajen samar da takardar tissue sun haɗa da ɓangaren litattafan almara, ƙarin sinadarai da kayan marufi. Daga cikinsu, ɓangaren litattafan almara yana da kashi 50%-70% na kuɗin samarwa, kuma masana'antar kera ɓangaren litattafan almara ita ce babbar kuma mafi mahimmanci a masana'antar takarda ta gida. A matsayinta na babban kayan da aka yi amfani da su a duniya, farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara yana da tasiri sosai ta hanyar zagayowar tattalin arzikin duniya, kuma canjin farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara yana shafar matakin ribar da aka samu a fannin kayayyakin takarda na gida.
Tun daga watan Nuwamba na shekarar 2020, farashin jatan lande ya ci gaba da hauhawa. A ƙarshen shekarar 2021, farashin jatan lande ya tashi daga yuan 5,500-6,000 a kowace tan, kuma zuwa ƙarshen shekarar 2022, ya tashi zuwa yuan 7,400-7,800 a kowace tan.
Domin magance hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi, tun daga watan Disamba na shekarar 2020, kamfanonin takarda na gida a faɗin ƙasar suka fara ƙara farashi ɗaya bayan ɗaya. Ya zuwa ranar 31 ga Disamba, 2020, a rabin na biyu na shekarar 2020, jimillar ƙaruwar takardar da aka gama ta kai yuan 800-1,000 a kowace tan, kuma farashin tsohon masana'anta ya tashi daga mafi ƙasƙanci na yuan 5,500-5,700 a kowace tan zuwa kusan yuan 7,000 a kowace tan. , Farashin tsohon masana'anta na Xinxiangyin ya kai yuan 12,500 a kowace tan.
A farkon watan Afrilun 2021, kamfanoni kamar Zhongshun Cleanroom da Vinda International sun ci gaba da ƙara farashi.
cakulan akwati
Zhongshun Jierou ya bayyana a cikin wasiƙar ƙara farashi a wancan lokacin cewa farashin kayan masarufi ya ci gaba da hauhawa, kuma farashin samar da kayayyaki da farashin aiki na kamfanin ya ci gaba da hauhawa. Vinda International (Beijing) ta kuma bayyana cewa saboda ci gaba da hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi, farashin samarwa ya ƙaru sosai, kuma tana shirin daidaita farashin wasu samfuran Vinda daga ranar 1 ga Afrilu.
Bayan haka, a cikin kwata na farko na 2022, Zhongshun Jierou ya fara ƙara farashi, kuma ya ci gaba da tafiya a matakai. Tun daga kwata na uku na 2022, Zhongshun Jierou ya ƙara farashin yawancin kayayyakinsa.
Duk da haka, ci gaba da ƙaruwar farashin kamfanonin takarda bai haifar da ƙaruwa mai yawa a cikin aikin kamfanin ba. Akasin haka, aikin kamfanin ya ragu saboda hauhawar farashi.
kukis ɗin akwatin kek
Daga shekarar 2020 zuwa 2022, kudin shigar Zhongshun Jierou zai kai Yuan biliyan 7.824, Yuan biliyan 9.15, da Yuan biliyan 8.57, bi da bi, tare da ribar da ta kai Yuan miliyan 906, Yuan miliyan 581, da Yuan miliyan 349, kuma ribar da ta kai Yuan biliyan 41.32 da Yuan biliyan 3.592 bi da bi. %, 31.96%, da kuma ribar da ta kai kashi 11.58%, 6.35%, da 4.07%.
Kudaden shiga na Vinda International daga shekarar 2020 zuwa 2022 za su kai yuan biliyan 13.897, yuan biliyan 15.269, da yuan biliyan 17.345, tare da ribar da ta kai yuan biliyan 1.578, yuan biliyan 1.34, da yuan miliyan 631. 28.24%, kuma ribar da aka samu ta kai kashi 11.35%, 8.77%, da kuma 3.64% bi da bi.
Daga shekarar 2020 zuwa 2022, kudin shigar Hengan International zai kai Yuan biliyan 22.374, Yuan biliyan 20.79, da Yuan biliyan 22.616 bi da bi, kuma kasuwancin nama zai kai kashi 46.41%, 47.34%, da 54.16% bi da bi; ribar da aka samu za ta kasance yuan biliyan 4.608 da yuan biliyan 3.29 bi da bi, yuan biliyan 1.949; jimlar ribar da aka samu ta kasance kashi 42.26%, 37.38%, da 34% bi da bi, kuma ribar da aka samu ta kasance kashi 20.6%, 15.83%, da 8.62%.
A cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, duk da cewa manyan kamfanonin takarda guda uku na gida sun ci gaba da ƙara farashi, har yanzu yana da wuya a daidaita hauhawar farashin, kuma aikin kamfanin da ribar sa sun ci gaba da raguwa.
akwatin zaki na wata-wata
02. Yanayin juyawa na aiki na iya zuwa nan ba da jimawa ba
A ranar 19 ga Afrilu, Zhongshun Jierou ta fitar da rahotonta na farko na kwata na 2023. Sanarwar ta nuna cewa a kwata na farko na 2023, kudin shigar kamfanin ya kai yuan biliyan 2.061, karuwar kashi 9.35% a shekara-shekara; ribar da masu hannun jari na kamfanonin da aka lissafa suka samu ta kai yuan miliyan 89.44, raguwar kashi 32.93% a shekara-shekara.
Daga hangen kwata na farko na shekarar 2023, aikin kamfanin bai koma baya ba.
Duk da haka, idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara, akwai alamun kyakkyawan fata. Dangane da ci gaba da bayanai na babban ƙarfin ɓangaren litattafan almara, babban ƙarfin ɓangaren litattafan almara ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa daga yuan 4252/ton a ranar 3 ga Fabrairu, 2020 zuwa har zuwa yuan 7652/ton a ranar 1 ga Maris, 2022. Bayan haka, ya ɗan daidaita kaɗan, amma ya ci gaba da kasancewa a kusan yuan 6700/ton. A ranar 12 ga Disamba, 2022, babban ƙarfin ɓangaren litattafan almara ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa zuwa mafi girman yuan 7452/ton, sannan ya ci gaba da raguwa. Ya zuwa ranar 23 ga Afrilu, 2023, babban ƙarfin ɓangaren litattafan almara ya ci gaba da zama yuan 5208/ton, wanda ya ragu da kashi 30.11% daga babban matakin da ya gabata.
Idan aka ci gaba da rage farashin jatan lande a wannan matakin a shekarar 2023, zai yi daidai da na farkon rabin shekarar 2019.
A rabin farko na shekarar 2019, jimillar ribar Zhongshun Jierou ta kai kashi 36.69%, kuma ribar da aka samu ta kai kashi 8.66%; jimillar ribar da aka samu ta Vinda International ta kai kashi 27.38%, kuma ribar da aka samu ta kai kashi 4.35%; jimillar ribar da aka samu ta Hengan International ta kai kashi 37.04%, kuma ribar da aka samu ta kai kashi 17.67%. Daga wannan mahangar, idan aka ci gaba da rage farashin jajjagen a kusan yuan 5,208/tan a shekarar 2023, ana sa ran ribar da aka samu ta manyan kamfanonin takarda guda uku na gida za ta karu sosai, kuma aikinsu zai kuma haifar da koma baya.
Kamfanin CITIC Securities ya yi hasashen cewa a cikin raguwar farashin jatan lande daga 2019 zuwa 2020, ƙimar waje na jatan lande/jatan lande na itace mai laushi zai yi ƙasa da dala $570/450/ton. Daga 2019 zuwa 2020 da rabin farko na 2021, Vinda International'Ribar da aka samu za ta kasance kashi 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, ribar da Zhongshun Jierou ta samu ita ce kashi 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% bi da bi, kuma ribar da aka samu a kasuwancin Hengan International tissue ita ce kashi 7.3%, 10.0%, da 8.9%.
A cikin kwata na huɗu na 2022, ribar da Vinda International da Zhongshun Jierou za su samu zai kai kashi 0.4% da 3.1% bi da bi. A rabin farko na 2022, ribar da ake samu a harkokin kasuwanci na tawul ɗin takarda na Hengan International zai kai kashi -2.6%. Kamfanoni za su mai da hankali kan dawo da riba, ana sa ran za a sarrafa ƙoƙarin tallata tallace-tallace a cikin wani takamaiman matsayi, kuma farashin ƙarshe ya yi daidai..akwatin zaki na wata-wata
Idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin gasa (sabon ƙarfin samar da takardar tissue a 2020/2021 shine tan miliyan 1.89/2.33) da kuma dabarun farashi mafi girma, CITIC Securities ta yi hasashen cewa ana sa ran ribar da takardar tissue ke samu a wannan zagayen rage farashin tissue za ta dawo da kashi 8%-10%.
A halin yanzu, farashin jatan lande ya shiga wani yanayi na koma baya. A ƙarƙashin wannan yanayi, ana sa ran kamfanonin takarda na gida za su kawo koma baya ga aikinsu.
Lokacin Saƙo: Mayu-15-2023
