Ke nānā nei i ke ʻano o ka ʻoihana pahu pepa ma 2023 mai ke kūlana hoʻomohala o nā pilikua hoʻopili corrugated ʻEulopa
I kēia makahiki, ua mālama nā hui nui o nā ʻōpala pahu ma ʻEulopa i nā loaʻa kālā kiʻekiʻe ma lalo o ke kūlana e hōʻino ana, akā pehea ka lōʻihi o kā lākou lanakila lanakila? Ma keʻano laulā, he makahiki paʻakikī ka makahiki 2022 no nā hui nui o nā ʻōpala pahu. Me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai ikehu a me nā kumukūʻai hana, ke hana ikaika nei nā hui kiʻekiʻe o ʻEulopa, me Smurf Cappa Group lāua ʻo Desma Group, e hoʻoponopono i ka pilikia o nā kumukūʻai pepa.Pahu pepa
Wahi a nā loiloi a Jeffries, mai ka makahiki 2020, ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana koʻikoʻi o ka hana ʻana i ka pepa hoʻopili, ua aneane pālua ke kumukūʻai o ka pepa pahu hana hou ʻia ma ʻEulopa. Eia kekahi, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka papa pahu kūloko i hana pololei ʻia mai nā lāʻau ma mua o nā pahu hana hou ʻia e hahai ana i kahi ala hoʻomohala like. I ka manawa like, ke hōʻemi nei nā mea kūʻai aku e noʻonoʻo ana i ke kumukūʻai i kā lākou hoʻolilo kālā ma ka pūnaewele, kahi e hōʻemi ai i ke koi no nā pahu. ʻEke pepa
Ua pau nā makahiki hanohano i lawe ʻia mai e ka COVID-19, e like me nā kauoha e holo ana me ka piha piha, ka lako pahu paʻa, a me ke piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai waihona o nā hui nui o ka ʻōpala. Eia naʻe, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hana a kēia mau ʻoihana ma mua o ka wā ma mua. Ua hōʻike koke aku nei ʻo Smurfit Cappa ua piʻi aʻe kāna EBITDA ma ka 43% mai ka hopena o Ianuali a i Kepakemapa, ʻoiai ua piʻi pū kāna loaʻa kālā hana ma ka hapakolu. ʻO ke ʻano kēia, ʻoiai aia nō he hapaha o ka manawa ma mua o ka hopena o 2022, ua ʻoi aku kāna loaʻa kālā a me ka loaʻa kālā ma 2022 ma mua o ka pae ma mua o ka maʻi ahulau COVID-19.
I kēia manawa, ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻo Desma, ka hui nui o ka ʻōpala corrugated ma UK, i kāna wānana makahiki e like me ʻApelila 30, 2023, me ka ʻōlelo ʻana he 400 miliona paona ka loaʻa kālā hana i hoʻoponopono ʻia i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki, ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 351 miliona paona i ka makahiki 2019. Ua hoʻonui ʻo Mengdi, kekahi hui nui o ka ʻōpala, i kāna waiwai kumu ma 3 mau pakeneka a ʻoi aku ma mua o ka pāpālua o kāna loaʻa kālā i ka hapa mua o kēia makahiki, ʻoiai ke paʻakikī nei ka ʻoihana Lūkini ma muli o nā pilikia i hoʻoholo ʻole ʻia.Pahu pāpale
He kakaikahi nā kikoʻī hou o ka hana a Desma i ʻOkakopa, akā ua ʻōlelo ʻia "ua haʻahaʻa iki ka huli ʻana o nā pahu corrugated like". Pēlā nō, ʻo ka ulu ikaika o Smurf Cappa ʻaʻole ia he hopena o ke kūʻai aku ʻana i nā pahu pepa hou aku - ua noho paʻa kāna kūʻai aku ʻana i nā pahu pepa corrugated i nā mahina ʻeiwa mua o 2022, a ua hāʻule hoʻi ma 3% i ka hapaha ʻekolu. Ma ke ʻano ʻē, hoʻonui kēia mau pilikua i kā lākou loaʻa kālā ma ka hoʻonui ʻana i ke kumukūʻai o kā lākou huahana.Pahu pāpale kinipōpō
Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole i hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia ka huli ʻana. Ma ke kelepona hālāwai kūkā hōʻike kālā i kēia mahina, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Tony Smurf, Luna Nui o Smurf Cappa: "Ua like loa ka nui o ke kālepa ʻana i ka hapaha ʻehā me ka mea a mākou i ʻike ai i ka hapaha ʻekolu. Manaʻo pinepine mākou e hoʻōla i ka Kalikimaka. ʻOiaʻiʻo, manaʻo wau ua hana maikaʻi kekahi mau mākeke e like me Beritania a me Kelemania i nā mahina ʻelua a ʻekolu paha i hala." Pahu Scarf
ʻO kēia ke alakaʻi nei i kahi nīnau: He aha ka mea e hiki mai ana i ka ʻoihana pahu corrugated i ka makahiki 2023? Inā hoʻomaka ka mākeke a me ke koi o ka mea kūʻai aku no ka hoʻopili corrugated e paʻa, hiki i nā mea hana hoʻopili corrugated ke hoʻomau i ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kumukūʻai e loaʻa ai nā loaʻa kālā kiʻekiʻe? Ma muli o ke kumu macro paʻakikī a me nā ukana pahu palupalu i hōʻike ʻia ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hauʻoli nā mea loiloi i ka hoʻopou hou ʻana o Smurf Cappa. I ka manawa like, ua hoʻoikaika ʻo Smurfikapa "ua ikaika loa ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana ma waena o ka hui a me ka makahiki i hala, a ke manaʻoʻiʻo mau nei mākou he pae paʻa ʻole kēia". Pahu makana Kalikimaka
Eia nō naʻe, kānalua loa nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā. ʻO ke kumukūʻai o ka mahele o Smurf Cappa he 25% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka piko o ke ahulau, a ua hāʻule ke kumukūʻai o ka mahele o Desma he 31%. ʻO wai ka mea pololei? ʻAʻole hilinaʻi wale ka holomua i ke kūʻai aku ʻana o ka pahu pepa a me ka pepa pahu. Ua wānana nā loiloi a Jeffries ma muli o ka nāwaliwali o ke koi macro, e hāʻule ke kumukūʻai o ka pepa hana hou ʻia, akā ua hoʻoikaika pū lākou e hāʻule ana ke kumukūʻai o ka pepa ʻōpala a me ka ikehu, no ka mea, ʻo ia hoʻi ke hāʻule nei ke kumukūʻai o ka hana ʻana i nā ʻōpala.
"I ko mākou manaʻo, ʻo ka mea i nānā pinepine ʻole ʻia, ʻo ia ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai he hopena nui ia i ka loaʻa kālā. ʻO ka mea hope loa, no nā mea hana pahu corrugated, e ʻike ʻia nā pono o ka hōʻemi ʻana i ke kumukūʻai ma mua o kekahi kumukūʻai pahu pahu haʻahaʻa, ʻoi aku ka viscous i ke kaʻina o ka emi ʻana (lag 3-6 mahina). Ma keʻano laulā, ua hoʻopau ʻia ka loaʻa kālā mai ke kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa e ka uku o ka loaʻa kālā. " wahi a nā loiloi ʻo Jeffries. Pahu lole
I ka manawa like, ʻaʻole maopopo loa ka pilikia o ke koi. ʻOiai ua hoʻoweliweli ka e-commerce a me ka lohi ʻana i ka hana o nā ʻoihana hoʻopili corrugated, ʻo ka hapa nui o ke kūʻai aku ʻana o kēia mau hui ma nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe. Ma Desma, ma kahi o 80% o ka loaʻa kālā mai nā waiwai kūʻai wikiwiki (FMCG), ʻo ia hoʻi nā huahana i kūʻai ʻia ma nā supermarkets. Ma kahi o 70% o ka ʻōpala pahu o Smurf Cappa i hoʻolako ʻia i nā mea kūʻai aku FMCG. Me ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka mākeke terminal, pono e hōʻoia kēia he maʻalahi. Ua ʻike ʻo Desma i ka ulu maikaʻi ʻana o ka hoʻololi plastik a me nā kahua ʻē aʻe.
No laila, ʻoiai ke loli nei ke koi, ʻaʻole paha e hāʻule ma lalo o kekahi kiko - ʻoiai ke noʻonoʻo nei i ka hoʻi ʻana mai o nā mea kūʻai aku ʻoihana i hoʻopilikia nui ʻia e ka maʻi ahulau COVID-19. Kākoʻo ʻia kēia e ka hana hou a MacFarlane (MACF), nāna i kuhikuhi i ka hoʻōla ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku ma nā ʻoihana mokulele, ʻenekinia a me nā hōkele e hoʻopau i ka hopena o ka lohi o ke kūʻai pūnaewele, a ua piʻi ka loaʻa kālā o ka hui ma 14% i nā mahina ʻeono mua o 2022. pahu lawe meaʻai holoholona
Hoʻohana pū nā mea hoʻopaʻa ʻōpala i ke ahulau e hoʻomaikaʻi i kā lākou mau pepa kaulike. Ua hoʻoikaika ʻo Tony Smoffey, Luna Nui o Smoffey Kappa, ʻo ke ʻano kapikala o kāna hui "ma ke kūlana maikaʻi loa i ko mākou mōʻaukala", a ʻo ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā aie/pre amortization ma mua o 1.4 mau manawa. Ua ʻae ʻo Miles Roberts, Luna Nui o Desma, me kēia i Kepakemapa, me ka ʻōlelo ʻana ua hāʻule ka lakio loaʻa kālā aie/pre amortization o ka hui i 1.6 mau manawa, "ʻo ia kekahi o nā lakio haʻahaʻa loa i nā makahiki he nui".pahu hoʻouna
ʻO ke ʻano o kēia mau mea a pau, ua manaʻo kekahi poʻe loiloi ua hana nui ka mākeke, ʻoiai ma ke ʻano o nā mea hoʻopaʻa helu FTSE 100, nona ke kumukūʻai i hāʻule a hiki i ka 20% mai ka loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka amortization i manaʻo nui ʻia. He mea hoihoi maoli kā lākou loiloi. ʻO ka lakio P/E mua o Desma he 8.7 wale nō, ʻoiai ʻo ka awelika ʻelima makahiki he 11.1, ʻoiai ʻo ka lakio P/E mua o Smurfikapa he 10.4, a ʻo ka awelika ʻelima makahiki he 12.3. I kahi nui, hilinaʻi ia i ka hiki i ka hui ke hōʻoiaʻiʻo i nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā e hiki iā lākou ke hoʻomau i ka hana kupaianaha i ka makahiki 2023.pahu hoʻouna leka uila
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Dec-27-2022
