Kuyerekeza malipoti azachuma a makampani atatu akuluakulu ofalitsa nkhani zapakhomo: Kodi kusintha kwa ntchito mu 2023 kukubwera?
Buku Lotsogolera: Pakadali pano, mtengo wa matabwa a mtengo watsika kwambiri, ndipo phindu ndi kuchepa kwa magwiridwe antchito zomwe zabwera chifukwa cha mtengo wapamwamba womwe unkagwiritsidwa ntchito kale zikuyembekezeka kukwera.
Zhongshun Jierou idzapeza ndalama zogwirira ntchito zokwana 8.57 biliyoni ya yuan mu 2022, kutsika kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 6.34%; phindu lonse lomwe limapezeka kwa omwe ali ndi magawo m'makampani omwe atchulidwa ndi pafupifupi 350 miliyoni ya yuan, kutsika kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 39.77%.
Kampani ya Vinda International idzapeza ndalama zogwirira ntchito zokwana HK$19.418 biliyoni mu 2022, zomwe zikutanthauza kuwonjezeka kwa 3.97% pachaka; phindu lonse lochokera ku kampani yayikulu ya HK$706 miliyoni, zomwe zikutanthauza kuchepa kwa 56.91% pachaka.
Ponena za zifukwa zomwe zachititsa kuti ntchito ichepe, Vinda International inati kuwonjezera pa zotsatira za mliriwu mu 2022, kukwera kosalekeza kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira kudzakhudza kwambiri momwe kampaniyo ikuchitira.
Hengan International idzapeza ndalama zokwana 22.616 biliyoni ya yuan mu 2022, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 8.8%; phindu lomwe limabwera chifukwa cha equity ya kampaniyo lidzakhala 1.925 biliyoni ya yuan, kuchepa kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 41.2%.
bokosi la makeke
Poganizira za kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe amapeza, bizinesi ya matawulo a mapepala yakhala bizinesi yayikulu ya Hengan International. Mu 2022, bizinesi iyi ya Hengan International idzachita bwino kwambiri. Mu 2022, ndalama zomwe bizinesi ya Hengan International yogulitsa matawulo a mapepala idzakwera ndi pafupifupi 24.4% kufika pa 12.248 biliyoni ya yuan, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti ndalama zonse zomwe gululi linapeza ndi 54.16% ya ndalama zonse zomwe gululi linapeza; inali 9.842 biliyoni ya yuan nthawi yomweyo chaka chatha, zomwe ndi 47.34%.
Poganizira malipoti apachaka a 2022 omwe adawululidwa ndi makampani atatuwa, kuchepa kwa magwiridwe antchito makamaka chifukwa cha kukwera kwakukulu kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira.
Deta yowunikira ya SunSirs ikuwonetsa kuti kuyambira mu 2022, mitengo ya softwood pulp ndi hardwood pulp, zomwe ndi zinthu zopangira hardwood pulp, yakhala ikukwera kwambiri. Mtengo wapakati pamsika wa softwood pulp ku Shandong unakwera kufika pa 7750 yuan/tani, ndipo hardwood pulp inakwera kufika pa 6700 yuan/tani Ton.
Chifukwa cha kukakamizidwa kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira zinthu, magwiridwe antchito a makampani akuluakulu opanga mapepala nawonso atsika, ndipo makampaniwa akadali ndi mavuto ambiri.
01. Kukwera kwa mitengo n'kovuta kuyerekeza ndi kukwera kwa zipangizo zopangira
Zipangizo zopangira mapepala opangidwa ndi tissue ndi monga zamkati, zowonjezera mankhwala ndi zinthu zomangira. Pakati pa izi, zamkati ndi 50%-70% ya ndalama zopangira, ndipo makampani opanga zamkati ndi makampani akuluakulu komanso ofunikira kwambiri pamakampani opanga mapepala apakhomo. Monga zinthu zopangira zamkati padziko lonse lapansi, mtengo wa zamkati umakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kayendetsedwe ka zachuma padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo kusinthasintha kwa mtengo wa zamkati kumakhudza phindu lonse la zinthu zopangira mapepala apakhomo.
Kuyambira mu Novembala 2020, mitengo ya zamkati yapitirira kukwera. Kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2021, mtengo wa zamkati unali pakati pa 5,500-6,000 yuan/tani, ndipo pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2022, unali utakwera kufika pa 7,400-7,800 yuan/tani.
Pofuna kuthana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira, kuyambira mu Disembala 2020, makampani opanga mapepala apakhomo mdziko lonselo anayamba kukweza mitengo motsatizana. Pofika pa Disembala 31, 2020, mu theka lachiwiri la 2020, kuwonjezeka kwa mapepala omalizidwa kwafika pa 800-1,000 yuan/tani, ndipo mtengo wakale wa fakitale wakwera kuchokera pamlingo wotsika kwambiri wa 5,500-5,700 yuan/tani kufika pafupifupi 7,000 yuan/tani. , Mtengo wakale wa fakitale wa Xinxiangyin wafika pa 12,500 yuan/tani.
Kumayambiriro kwa Epulo 2021, makampani monga Zhongshun Cleanroom ndi Vinda International adapitiliza kukweza mitengo.
chokoleti cha bokosi
Zhongshun Jierou adanena mu kalata yokweza mitengo panthawiyo kuti mitengo ya zinthu zopangira zinthu ikupitiliza kukwera, ndipo ndalama zopangira ndi zogwirira ntchito za kampaniyo zikupitirira kukwera. Vinda International (Beijing) idanenanso kuti chifukwa cha kukwera kosalekeza kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira, ndalama zopangira zinthu zakwera kwambiri, ndipo ikukonzekera kusintha mitengo ya zinthu zina za mtundu wa Vinda kuyambira pa 1 Epulo.
Pambuyo pake, mu kotala yoyamba ya 2022, Zhongshun Jierou inayamba kukweza mitengo kachiwiri, ndipo inapita patsogolo pang'onopang'ono. Pofika kotala yachitatu ya 2022, Zhongshun Jierou inakweza mitengo ya zinthu zake zambiri.
Komabe, kukwera kwa mitengo kosalekeza kwa makampani opanga mapepala sikunachititse kuti ntchito ya kampaniyo ikwere kwambiri. M'malo mwake, ntchito ya kampaniyo inachepa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo.
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Kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2022, ndalama zomwe Zhongshun Jierou amapeza zidzakhala 7.824 biliyoni yuan, 9.15 biliyoni yuan, ndi 8.57 biliyoni yuan, motsatana, ndi phindu lonse la 906 miliyoni yuan, 581 miliyoni yuan, ndi 349 miliyoni yuan, ndi phindu lonse la 41.32% ndi 3.592 biliyoni yuan motsatana. %, 31.96%, ndipo chiwongola dzanja chonse chinali 11.58%, 6.35%, ndi 4.07%, motsatana.
Ndalama zomwe Vinda International inapeza kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2022 zidzakhala yuan 13.897 biliyoni, yuan 15.269 biliyoni, ndi yuan 17.345 biliyoni, ndi phindu lonse la yuan 1.578 biliyoni, yuan 1.34 biliyoni, ndi yuan 631 miliyoni. 28.24%, ndipo chiwongola dzanja chonse chinali 11.35%, 8.77%, ndi 3.64% motsatana.
Kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2022, ndalama za Hengan International zidzakhala 22.374 biliyoni yuan, 20.79 biliyoni yuan, ndi 22.616 biliyoni yuan motsatana, ndipo bizinesi ya minofu idzakhala 46.41%, 47.34%, ndi 54.16% motsatana; phindu lonse lidzakhala 4.608 biliyoni yuan ndi 3.29 biliyoni yuan motsatana, 1.949 biliyoni yuan; phindu lonse linali 42.26%, 37.38%, ndi 34% motsatana, ndipo phindu lonse linali 20.6%, 15.83%, ndi 8.62%.
M'zaka zitatu zapitazi, ngakhale makampani atatu akuluakulu opanga mapepala apakhomo apitiliza kukweza mitengo, komabe n'kovuta kuchepetsa ndalama zomwe zikukwera, ndipo magwiridwe antchito ndi phindu la kampaniyo zikupitirirabe kuchepa.
bokosi lokoma la pamwezi
02. Kukwera kwa mphamvu ya magwiridwe antchito kungabwere posachedwa
Pa Epulo 19, Zhongshun Jierou idatulutsa lipoti lake loyamba la kotala la 2023. Chilengezochi chikuwonetsa kuti mu kotala yoyamba ya 2023, ndalama zomwe kampaniyo idapeza zinali 2.061 biliyoni yuan, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 9.35%; phindu lonse lomwe lidaperekedwa kwa omwe ali ndi magawo m'makampani omwe adatchulidwa linali 89.44 miliyoni yuan, kuchepa kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 32.93%.
Malinga ndi momwe zinthu zinalili mu kotala loyamba la 2023, ntchito ya kampaniyo sinasinthe.
Komabe, poganizira momwe mitengo ya pulp imayendera, pali zizindikiro za chiyembekezo. Malinga ndi deta yopitilira ya mphamvu yayikulu ya pulp, mphamvu yayikulu ya pulp idapitilira kukwera kuchokera pa 4252 yuan/tani pa February 3, 2020 kufika pa 7652 yuan/tani pa March 1, 2022. Pambuyo pake, idasintha pang'ono, koma idatsala pafupifupi 6700 yuan/tani. Pa December 12, 2022, mphamvu yayikulu ya pulp idapitilira kukwera kufika pa 7452 yuan/tani, kenako idapitilira kutsika. Pofika pa Epulo 23, 2023, mphamvu yayikulu ya pulp idapitilira kukhala 5208 yuan/tani, yomwe yatsika ndi 30.11% kuchokera pamlingo wapamwamba wakale.
Ngati mtengo wa zamkati ukhalabe pamlingo uwu mu 2023, udzakhala wofanana ndi wa theka loyamba la chaka cha 2019.
Mu theka loyamba la chaka cha 2019, phindu lonse la Zhongshun Jierou linali 36.69%, ndipo phindu lonse linali 8.66%; phindu lonse la Vinda International linali 27.38%, ndipo phindu lonse linali 4.35%; phindu lonse la Hengan International linali 37.04%, ndipo phindu lonse linali 17.67%. Kuchokera pamalingaliro awa, ngati mtengo wa zamkati ukhalabe pafupifupi 5,208 yuan/tani mu 2023, chiwongola dzanja chonse cha makampani atatu akuluakulu olembera mapepala apakhomo chikuyembekezeka kukwera kwambiri, ndipo magwiridwe antchito awo adzabweretsanso kusintha.
CITIC Securities ikulosera kuti pa kutsika kwa mitengo ya pulp kuyambira 2019 mpaka 2020, mitengo yakunja ya pulp ya softwood/hardwood idzakhala yotsika kufika pa US$570/450/tani. Kuyambira 2019 mpaka 2020 ndi theka loyamba la 2021, Vinda International'phindu lonse lidzakhala 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, chiwongola dzanja chonse cha Zhongshun Jierou ndi 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% motsatana, ndipo phindu logwira ntchito la bizinesi ya minofu ya Hengan International ndi 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Mu kotala lachinayi la 2022, phindu lonse la Vinda International ndi Zhongshun Jierou lidzakhala 0.4% ndi 3.1% motsatana. Mu theka loyamba la 2022, phindu lonse la bizinesi ya Hengan International yopangira matawulo a mapepala lidzakhala -2.6%. Mabizinesi aziganizira kwambiri kubwezeretsa phindu, zoyesayesa zotsatsa malonda zikuyembekezeka kulamulidwa mkati mwa mtundu winawake, ndipo mitengo yomaliza ndi yokhazikika..bokosi lokoma la pamwezi
Poganizira za mpikisano (mphamvu yatsopano yopangira mapepala a minofu mu 2020/2021 ndi matani 1.89/2.33 miliyoni) komanso njira yotsogola yopangira mitengo, CITIC Securities ikuneneratu kuti phindu lonse la pepala lotsogola mu gawo lino la kutsika kwa mitengo ya pulp likuyembekezeka kubwereranso kufika pa 8%-10% %.
Pakadali pano, mitengo ya zamkati yatsika. Pansi pa izi, makampani opanga mapepala apakhomo akuyembekezeka kubweretsa kusintha kwa magwiridwe antchito.
Nthawi yotumizira: Meyi-15-2023
