Kuyang'ana momwe makampani opanga makatoni akuchulukirachulukira mu 2023 kuchokera ku momwe makampani akuluakulu aku Europe opanga ma corrugated packaging amapangidwira.

Kuyang'ana momwe makampani opanga makatoni akuchulukirachulukira mu 2023 kuchokera ku momwe makampani akuluakulu aku Europe opanga ma corrugated packaging amapangidwira.
Chaka chino, makampani akuluakulu ogulitsa makatoni ku Europe apitilizabe kupeza phindu lalikulu chifukwa cha mavuto omwe akukumana nawo, koma kodi kupambana kwawo kungatenge nthawi yayitali bwanji? Kawirikawiri, chaka cha 2022 chidzakhala chovuta kwa makampani akuluakulu ogulitsa makatoni. Chifukwa cha kukwera kwa ndalama zamagetsi ndi ndalama zogwirira ntchito, makampani akuluakulu aku Europe, kuphatikizapo Smurf Cappa Group ndi Desma Group, akugwiranso ntchito molimbika kuti athetse vuto la mitengo ya mapepala.Bokosi la pepala
Malinga ndi akatswiri a Jeffries, kuyambira mu 2020, monga gawo lofunika kwambiri popanga mapepala opaka, mtengo wa makatoni obwezerezedwanso ku Europe wawonjezeka kawiri. Kuphatikiza apo, mtengo wa bolodi la bokosi lopangidwa mwachindunji kuchokera ku matabwa m'malo mwa makatoni obwezerezedwanso ukutsatira njira yofanana yopititsira patsogolo chitukuko. Nthawi yomweyo, ogula omwe amasamala za ndalama amachepetsa ndalama zomwe amagwiritsa ntchito pa intaneti, zomwe zimachepetsa kufunikira kwa makatoni. Chikwama cha pepala
Zaka zabwino zomwe zinabwera chifukwa cha COVID-19, monga maoda odzaza ndi zinthu zonse, kupezeka kwa makatoni ochepa, komanso kukwera kwa mitengo yamasheya a makampani akuluakulu opaka zinthu, zonse zatha. Komabe, ngakhale zili choncho, magwiridwe antchito a makampaniwa ndi abwino kuposa kale lonse. Posachedwapa, Smurfit Cappa inanena kuti EBITDA yake yakwera ndi 43% kuyambira kumapeto kwa Januware mpaka Seputembala, pomwe ndalama zomwe amapeza pantchito zake zakweranso ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu. Izi zikutanthauza kuti ngakhale kuti padakali kotala la nthawi isanafike kumapeto kwa 2022, ndalama zomwe amapeza komanso phindu lake mu 2022 zapitirira mulingo wa mliri wa COVID-19 usanachitike.
Pakadali pano, Desma, kampani yayikulu kwambiri yokonza zinthu zopangidwa ndi corrugated ku UK, yakweza zomwe ikuyembekezeka kuchita pachaka kuyambira pa Epulo 30, 2023, ponena kuti phindu lokhazikika lomwe lingagwiritsidwe ntchito mu theka loyamba la chaka liyenera kukhala osachepera mapaundi 400 miliyoni, poyerekeza ndi mapaundi 351 miliyoni mu 2019. Mengdi, kampani ina yokonza zinthu zopangidwa ndi corrugated, yawonjezera phindu lake ndi maperesenti atatu ndipo yachulukitsa phindu lake kuwirikiza kawiri mu theka loyamba la chaka chino, ngakhale kuti idakali ndi bizinesi yaku Russia yomwe ili muvuto lalikulu chifukwa cha mavuto osathetsedwa.Bokosi la chipewa
Tsatanetsatane wa zosintha za malonda a Desma mu Okutobala unali wochepa, koma unanena kuti "kuchuluka kwa mabokosi ofanana ndi omwe ali ndi makontena kuli kotsika pang'ono". Mofananamo, kukula kwamphamvu kwa Smurf Cappa sikuli chifukwa chogulitsa makatoni ambiri - malonda ake a makatoni okhala ndi makontena anakhalabe osasinthasintha m'miyezi isanu ndi inayi yoyambirira ya 2022, ndipo adatsika ndi 3% mu kotala lachitatu. M'malo mwake, akuluakulu awa amawonjezera phindu lawo powonjezera mtengo wa zinthu zawo.Bokosi la chipewa cha baseball
Kuphatikiza apo, kusintha kwa ndalama sikukuwoneka kuti kwasintha. Pa msonkhano wa lipoti la zachuma mwezi uno, Tony Smurf, CEO wa Smurf Cappa, anati: "Kuchuluka kwa malonda mu kotala lachinayi kukufanana kwambiri ndi komwe tidawona mu kotala lachitatu. Nthawi zambiri timayembekezera kuti zinthu zibwererenso pa Khirisimasi. Inde, ndikuganiza kuti misika ina monga Britain ndi Germany yachita bwino kwambiri m'miyezi iwiri kapena itatu yapitayi."
Izi zimabweretsa funso: Kodi chidzachitike ndi chiyani ku makampani opanga mabokosi opangidwa ndi corrugated mu 2023? Ngati msika ndi kufunikira kwa ogula kwa ma CD opangidwa ndi corrugated kuyamba kukhazikika, kodi opanga ma CD opangidwa ndi corrugated angapitirize kukweza mitengo kuti apeze phindu lalikulu? Poganizira zovuta zazikulu komanso kufooka kwa kutumiza makatoni komwe kwanenedwa ku United States, akatswiri akusangalala ndi zosintha za Smurf Cappa. Nthawi yomweyo, Smurfikapa adagogomezera kuti "kuyerekeza pakati pa gululi ndi chaka chatha kuli kolimba kwambiri, ndipo nthawi zonse timakhulupirira kuti izi ndi gawo losakhazikika". Bokosi la mphatso la Khirisimasi
Komabe, amalonda akukayikira kwambiri. Mtengo wa magawo a Smurf Cappa unali wotsika ndi 25% kuposa pachimake cha mliriwu, ndipo mtengo wa magawo a Desma unatsika ndi 31%. Ndani ali wolondola? Kupambana sikudalira kokha kugulitsa makatoni ndi makatoni. Akatswiri a Jeffries adaneneratu kuti chifukwa cha kufunikira kochepa kwa makatoni, mtengo wa makatoni obwezerezedwanso udzatsika, komanso adagogomezera kuti mtengo wa mapepala ndi mphamvu zinyalala ukutsikanso, chifukwa zikutanthauzanso kuti mtengo wopanga ma CD ukutsika.
"Malinga ndi maganizo athu, chomwe nthawi zambiri chimanyalanyazidwa ndichakuti ndalama zochepa zitha kukhala ndi zotsatirapo zazikulu pa phindu. Pomaliza, kwa opanga mabokosi opangidwa ndi corrugated box, phindu la kuchepetsa ndalama lidzawonekera kuposa mtengo uliwonse wotsika wa makatoni, womwe umakhala wokhuthala kwambiri pakagwa kuchepa (kuchedwa kwa miyezi 3-6). Kawirikawiri, phindu la phindu kuchokera ku mitengo yotsika limachepetsedwa pang'ono ndi phindu la phindu." Akatswiri a Jeffries adatero.
Nthawi yomweyo, vuto la kufunikira kwa zinthu silili losavuta kwenikweni. Ngakhale kuti malonda apaintaneti ndi kuchepa kwa ntchito kwabweretsa chiwopsezo pa magwiridwe antchito a makampani opaka zinthu zomangira, gawo lalikulu la malonda a magulu awa nthawi zambiri limapezeka m'mabizinesi ena. Ku Desma, pafupifupi 80% ya ndalama zomwe amapeza zimachokera ku zinthu zogulitsa mwachangu (FMCG), zomwe makamaka ndi zinthu zogulitsidwa m'masitolo akuluakulu. Pafupifupi 70% ya ma CD a Smurf Cappa amaperekedwa kwa makasitomala a FMCG. Ndi chitukuko cha msika wa terminal, izi ziyenera kukhala zosinthika. Desma yawona kukula kwabwino kwa kusintha kwa pulasitiki ndi madera ena.
Chifukwa chake, ngakhale kusinthasintha kwa kufunikira, sizingatheke kutsika pansi pa mfundo inayake - makamaka poganizira kubwerera kwa makasitomala amafakitale omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mliri wa COVID-19. Izi zikuthandizidwa ndi momwe MacFarlane (MACF) yaposachedwapa idachitira, yomwe idanenanso kuti kuchira kwa makasitomala m'makampani opanga ndege, uinjiniya ndi mahotela kwachepetsa kuchepa kwa kugula pa intaneti, ndipo ndalama za kampaniyo zidakwera ndi 14% m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yoyambirira ya 2022.
Anthu ogulitsa zinyalala amagwiritsanso ntchito mliriwu kuti akonze mapepala awo osungira ndalama. Tony Smoffey, CEO wa Smoffey Kappa, adagogomezera kuti kapangidwe ka ndalama za kampani yake "kadali bwino kwambiri m'mbiri yathu", ndipo phindu la ngongole/pre amortization linali lochepera nthawi 1.4. Miles Roberts, CEO wa Desma, adagwirizana ndi izi mu Seputembala, ponena kuti chiŵerengero cha phindu la ngongole/pre amortization cha gululo chatsika kufika nthawi 1.6, "chomwe ndi chimodzi mwa ziŵerengero zochepa kwambiri m'zaka zambiri".bokosi lotumizira
Zonsezi pamodzi zikutanthauza kuti akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti msika wachita zinthu mopitirira muyeso, makamaka pankhani ya FTSE 100 index packers, omwe mitengo yawo yatsika ndi 20% kuchokera ku phindu lomwe limayembekezeredwa kuti lichitike. Mtengo wawo ndi wokongola kwambiri. Chiŵerengero cha forward P/E cha Desma ndi 8.7 yokha, pomwe avareji ya zaka zisanu ndi 11.1, pomwe chiŵerengero cha forward P/E cha Smurfikapa ndi 10.4, ndipo avareji ya zaka zisanu ndi 12.3. Kwambiri, zimatengera ngati kampaniyo ingatsimikizire osunga ndalama kuti apitirize kuchita bwino kwambiri mu 2023.bokosi lotumizira makalata