Kuenzanisa mishumo yemari yemakambani makuru matatu enhau dzemhuri: Ko inflection point of performance muna 2023 iri kuuya here?
Gwaro: Parizvino, mutengo wehuni waderera, uye kudzikira kwepurofiti nekudzikira kwekushanda kwakakonzerwa nemutengo wakakwira wekare zvinotarisirwa kuti zvichavandudzika.
Zhongshun Jierou ichawana mari yekushanda inosvika mabhiriyoni 8.57 eyuan muna 2022, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe6.34%; purofiti inowanikwa nevanogovana masheya mumakambani akanyorwa imamiriyoni mazana matatu nemakumi mashanu eyuan, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe39.77%.
Vinda International ichawana mari yekushanda inosvika mabhiriyoni gumi nemapfumbamwe nemakumi mana negumi nemasere emadhora ($19.418 bhiriyoni) mugore ra2022, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe3.97%; purofiti inokonzerwa nekambani huru yeHK$706 miriyoni, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe56.91%.
Nezvezvikonzero zvekudzikira kwebasa, Vinda International yakati pamusoro pekukanganiswa kwedenda iri muna 2022, kukwira kuri kuramba kuchikwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakagadzirwa kuchakanganisa mashandiro ekambani.
Hengan International ichawana mari inosvika mabhiriyoni makumi maviri nemaviri nemazana matanhatu nemakumi matanhatu nematanhatu emadhora muna 2022, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe8.8%; purofiti inokonzerwa nemakambani ane equity ichava mabhiriyoni zana nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemakumi maviri nemashanu emadhora, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe41.2%.
bhokisi remakuki
Kubva pamaonero emari inowanikwa, bhizinesi remachira epepa ragara riri iro bhizinesi guru reHengan International. Muna 2022, bhizinesi iri reHengan International richabudirira zvechokwadi. Muna 2022, mari inotengeswa nebhizinesi remachira epepa reHengan International ichawedzera neinenge 24.4% kusvika 12.248 bhiriyoni yuan, zvichiita kuti pave ne54.16% yemari yose inowanikwa neboka; yaive 9.842 bhiriyoni yuan munguva imwe chete gore rapfuura, zvichiita kuti pave ne47.34%.
Tichitarisa mishumo yegore negore ya2022 yakaburitswa nemakambani matatu aya, kudzikira kwebasa kuri kukonzerwa zvikuru nekukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakagadzirwa.
Data rekutarisa reSunSirs rinoratidza kuti kubvira mugore ra2022, mitengo ye softwood pulp ne hardwood pulp, zvinhu zvekugadzira pulp yehuni, yave ichikwira zvichikwira. Avhareji yemutengo wemusika we softwood pulp muShandong yakakwira kusvika pa7750 yuan/tani, uye hardwood pulp yakakwira kusvika pa6700 yuan/tani Ton.
Nekuda kwekumanikidzwa kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakagadzirwa nemaoko kukwira zvakanyanya, mashandiro emakambani makuru epepa akadererawo, uye indasitiri iyi ichiri kutarisana nematambudziko makuru.
01. Kukwira kwemutengo kwakaoma kudzikamisa kukwira kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa
Zvinhu zvinoshandiswa pakugadzira mapepa epepa zvinosanganisira pulp, zvinowedzerwa mumakemikari uye zvinhu zvekurongedza. Pakati pazvo, pulp inobhadhara 50%-70% yemari yekugadzira, uye indasitiri yekugadzira pulp ndiyo indasitiri huru uye inonyanya kukosha yeindasitiri yepepa repamba. Sezvinhu zvepasi rose, mutengo wepulp unokanganiswa zvakanyanya nedanho rehupfumi hwenyika, uye kuchinja kwemutengo wepulp kunokanganisa mwero wepurofiti yezvigadzirwa zvepepa repamba.
Kubva muna Mbudzi 2020, mitengo ye pulp yakaramba ichikwira. Pakupera kwa2021, mutengo we pulp wakamira pa 5,500-6,000 yuan/tani, uye pakupera kwa2022, wakanga wakwira kusvika pa 7,400-7,800 yuan/tani.
Kuti vakwanise kugadzirisa mitengo yemitengo yezvinhu zvakagadzirwa, kutanga muna Zvita 2020, makambani emapepa epamba munyika yese akatanga kukwidza mitengo imwe mushure meimwe. Kubva musi wa31 Zvita 2020, muhafu yechipiri yegore ra2020, kuwedzera kwepepa rakapedzwa kwasvika 800-1,000 yuan/tani, uye mutengo wekare wefekitori wakakwira kubva padanho rakaderera re5,500-5,700 yuan/tani kusvika pa7,000 yuan/tani. , Mutengo wekare wefekitori weXinxiangyin wasvika 12,500 yuan/tani.
Pakutanga kwaKubvumbi 2021, makambani akadai seZhongshun Cleanroom neVinda International akaramba achikwidza mitengo.
machokoreti ebhokisi
Zhongshun Jierou akataura mutsamba yekuwedzera kwemitengo panguva iyoyo kuti mitengo yezvinhu zvakabikwa yakaramba ichikwira, uye mari yekugadzira yekambani pamwe nemari yekushandisa yakaramba ichikwira. Vinda International (Beijing) yakataurawo kuti nekuda kwekukwira kuri kuramba kuchiita mitengo yezvinhu zvakabikwa, mitengo yekugadzira yakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye inoronga kugadzirisa mitengo yezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemhando yeVinda kubva muna Kubvumbi 1.
Mushure mezvo, muchikamu chekutanga cha2022, Zhongshun Jierou yakatanga kukwidza mitengo zvakare, uye yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma. Kubva muchikamu chechitatu cha2022, Zhongshun Jierou yakakwidza mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvayo zvakawanda.
Zvisinei, kukwira kwemitengo kwakaramba kuchienderera mberi kwemakambani epepa hakuna kukonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwekushanda kwekambani. Kusiyana neizvi, kushanda kwekambani kwakadzikira nekuda kwemitengo yakakwira.
bhokisi rekeke cookie
Kubva muna 2020 kusvika 2022, mari inowanikwa neZhongshun Jierou ichave 7.824 bhiriyoni yuan, 9.15 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 8.57 bhiriyoni yuan, zvichiteerana, nepurofiti ye906 miriyoni yuan, 581 miriyoni yuan, uye 349 miriyoni yuan, uye purofiti ye41.32% uye 3.592 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana. %, 31.96%, uye mubereko wemari waive 11.58%, 6.35%, uye 4.07%, zvichiteerana.
Mari inowanikwa neVinda International kubva muna 2020 kusvika 2022 ichave 13.897 bhiriyoni yuan, 15.269 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 17.345 bhiriyoni yuan, nepurofiti ye1.578 bhiriyoni yuan, 1.34 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 631 miriyoni yuan. 28.24%, uye mitengo yemubereko yaive 11.35%, 8.77%, uye 3.64%, zvichiteerana.
Kubva muna 2020 kusvika 2022, mari inowanikwa neHengan International ichave 22.374 bhiriyoni yuan, 20.79 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 22.616 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana, uye bhizinesi rematishu richave 46.41%, 47.34%, uye 54.16% zvichiteerana; purofiti ichava 4.608 bhiriyoni yuan uye 3.29 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana, 1.949 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana; purofiti yakazara yaive 42.26%, 37.38%, uye 34% zvichiteerana, uye purofiti yakazara yaive 20.6%, 15.83%, uye 8.62%.
Mumakore matatu apfuura, kunyange hazvo makambani matatu makuru ekugadzira mapepa epamba akaramba achikwidza mitengo, zvichiri kuoma kugadzirisa mitengo iri kukwira, uye mashandiro ekambani uye purofiti yayo yakaramba ichiderera.
bhokisi rezvinotapira remwedzi wega wega
02. Kuchinja kwesimba remuchina kunogona kuuya munguva pfupi iri kutevera
Musi wa19 Kubvumbi, Zhongshun Jierou yakaburitsa mushumo wayo wekutanga wekota yegore ra2023. Chiziviso ichi chinoratidza kuti mukota yekutanga yegore ra2023, mari yekushanda yekambani yaive 2.061 bhiriyoni yuan, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe9.35%; purofiti yakawanikwa kubva kuvagovani vemakambani akanyorwa yaive 89.44 miriyoni yuan, kudzikira kwegore negore kwe32.93%.
Kubva pamaonero echikamu chekutanga chegore ra2023, mashandiro ekambani haana kuchinja.
Zvisinei, tichitarisa kubva pamitengo ye pulp, pane zviratidzo zvetariro. Zvichienderana nedata rinoenderera mberi resimba guru re pulp, simba guru re pulp rakaramba richikwira kubva pa 4252 yuan/ton musi wa 3 Kukadzi 2020 kusvika pa7652 yuan/ton musi wa 1 Kurume 2022. Mushure meizvozvo, rakachinja zvishoma, asi rakaramba riri pa 6700 yuan/ton. Musi wa12 Zvita 2022, simba guru re pulp rakaramba richikwira kusvika pa7452 yuan/ton, ndokuzoramba richidzikira. Kubva musi wa23 Kubvumbi 2023, simba guru re pulp rakaramba riri 5208 yuan/ton, iro radzikira ne30.11% kubva pakakwirira kwekare.
Kana mutengo wepulp ukaramba uri padanho iri muna 2023, uchave wakafanana newaive muhafu yekutanga ya2019.
Muhafu yekutanga yegore ra2019, purofiti yeZhongshun Jierou yaive 36.69%, uye purofiti yeVinda International yaive 8.66%; purofiti yeVinda International yaive 27.38%, uye purofiti ye4.35%; purofiti yeHengan International yaive 37.04%, uye purofiti ye17.67%. Kubva pamaonero aya, kana mutengo wepulp ukaramba uri pa5,208 yuan/tani muna 2023, mubereko wemakambani matatu makuru epepa repamba unotarisirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya, uye mashandiro avo achaunzawo shanduko.
CITIC Securities inofanotaura kuti mukuderera kwemitengo ye pulp kubva muna 2019 kusvika 2020, mitengo yekunze ye softwood pulp/hardwood pulp ichave yakaderera kusvika kuUS$570/450/tani. Kubva muna 2019 kusvika 2020 nehafu yekutanga ya2021, Vinda International'purofiti yekambani yeZhongshun Jierou ichave 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, mubereko wekambani yeZhongshun Jierou uri 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% zvichiteerana, uye mubereko wekambani yeHengan International tissue business uri 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Muchikamu chechina chegore ra2022, purofiti yeVinda International neZhongshun Jierou ichave 0.4% uye 3.1% zvichiteerana. Muhafu yekutanga ya2022, purofiti yekushanda yebhizinesi reHengan International remachira epepa ichave -2.6%. Makambani achatarisa pakudzoreredza purofiti, kuedza kwekusimudzira kutengesa kunotarisirwa kudzorwa mukati mechikamu chakati, uye mitengo yekupedzisira yakagadzikana..bhokisi rezvinotapira remwedzi wega wega
Tichifunga nezvemakwikwi (kugona kutsva kwekugadzira mapepa epepa muna 2020/2021 i1.89/2.33 miriyoni matani) uye hurongwa hwepamusoro hwemutengo, CITIC Securities inofanotaura kuti purofiti yepepa repepa repepa repepa repepa repamusoro muchikamu chino chekuderedza mitengo yepepa repepa inotarisirwa kudzokerwa kusvika pa8%-10% %.
Parizvino, mitengo ye pulp yaderera. Nekuda kweizvi, makambani epurasitiki anotarisirwa kudzorera mashandiro ekambani.
Nguva yekutumira: Chivabvu-15-2023
