Papiso ea litlaleho tsa lichelete tsa lik'hamphani tse tharo tse kholo tsa pampiri ea malapa: Na ntlha ea ho phahama ha ts'ebetso ka 2023 e tla tla?
Tataiso: Hona jwale, theko ya lepolanka la patsi e se e theohile, mme ho theoha ha phaello le ho theoha ha tshebetso ho bakilweng ke ditjeo tse phahameng tsa pele ho lebelletswe hore ho ntlafatswe.
Zhongshun Jierou e tla fumana chelete e kenang ea ts'ebetso ea li-yuan tse libilione tse 8.57 ka 2022, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 6.34%; phaello e setseng e bakoang ke beng ba likarolo tsa lik'hamphani tse thathamisitsoeng ke li-yuan tse ka bang limilione tse 350, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 39.77%.
Vinda International e tla fumana chelete e kenang ea ts'ebetso ea HK$19.418 bilione ka 2022, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 3.97%; phaello e felletseng e bakoang ke k'hamphani ea motsoali ea HK$706 milione, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 56.91%.
Mabapi le mabaka a ho theoha ha tshebetso, Vinda International e boletse hore ntle le tshusumetso ya seoa sena ka 2022, keketseho e tswelang pele ya ditjeo tsa thepa e tala e tla ba le tshusumetso e mpe tshebetsong ya khamphani.
Hengan International e tla fumana chelete e kenang ea li-yuan tse libilione tse 22.616 ka 2022, e leng keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 8.8%; phaello e amanang le beng ba likarolo tsa k'hamphani e tla ba li-yuan tse libilione tse 1.925, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 41.2%.
lebokose la dikuku
Ho ya ka pono ya karolelano ya lekeno, kgwebo ya dithaole tsa pampiri esale e le kgwebo ya mantlha ya Hengan International. Ka 2022, kgwebo ena ya Hengan International e tla sebetsa hantle haholo. Ka 2022, lekeno la thekiso la kgwebo ya dithaole tsa pampiri ya Hengan International le tla eketseha ka hoo e ka bang 24.4% ho ya ho di-yuan tse dibilione tse 12.248, e leng tjhelete e ka bang 54.16% ya lekeno lohle la sehlopha; e ne e le di-yuan tse dibilione tse 9.842 nakong e tshwanang selemong se fetileng, e leng tjhelete e ka bang 47.34%.
Ha re sheba litlaleho tsa selemo le selemo tsa 2022 tse senotsoeng ke lik'hamphani tse tharo tsa pampiri, ho theoha ha ts'ebetso ho bakoa haholo-holo ke keketseho e matla ea litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala.
Lintlha tsa tlhokomelo ea SunSirs li bontša hore ho tloha ka 2022, litheko tsa nakoana tsa softwood pulp le hardwood pulp, e leng thepa e tala bakeng sa softwood pulp, li ntse li fetoha ho ea holimo. Theko e tloaelehileng ea 'maraka ea softwood pulp Shandong e kile ea nyolohela ho 7750 yuan/ton, 'me hardwood pulp e kile ea nyolohela ho 6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Tlas'a khatello ea litheko tsa thepa e tala tse ntseng li phahama ka sekhahla, ts'ebetso ea lik'hamphani tse kholo tsa pampiri le eona e theohile, 'me indasteri e ntse e tobane le liphephetso tse kholo.
01. Ho phahama ha theko ho thata ho fokotsa ho phahama ha thepa e tala
Lisebelisoa tse tala tse sebelisoang ts'ebetsong ea tlhahiso ea pampiri ea tissue li kenyelletsa pulp, lik'hemik'hale tse eketsang le thepa ea ho paka. Har'a tsona, pulp e ikarabella bakeng sa 50%-70% ea litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso, 'me indasteri ea tlhahiso ea pulp ke indasteri e ka sehloohong le ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa indastering ea pampiri ea malapa. Jwalo ka thepa e tala ea machaba, theko ea pulp e angoa haholo ke potoloho ea moruo oa lefats'e, 'me ho fetoha ha theko ea pulp ho ama boemo ba phaello e kholo ea lihlahisoa tsa pampiri ea malapa.
Ho tloha ka Pudungwana 2020, litheko tsa pulp li ntse li tsoela pele ho nyoloha. Qetellong ea 2021, theko ea pulp e ile ea phahama ho 5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, 'me qetellong ea 2022, e ne e se e nyolohetse ho 7,400-7,800 yuan/ton.
E le ho sebetsana le keketseho ea litheko tsa litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala, ho tloha ka Tšitoe 2020, lik'hamphani tsa pampiri tsa malapa ho pholletsa le naha li ile tsa qala ho phahamisa litheko ka bonngoe. Ho tloha ka la 31 Tšitoe 2020, karolong ea bobeli ea 2020, keketseho e akaretsang ea pampiri e felileng e fihlile ho 800-1,000 yuan/ton, 'me theko ea fektheri ea pele e nyolohile ho tloha ntlheng e tlase ea 5,500-5,700 yuan/ton ho ea ho hoo e ka bang 7,000 yuan/ton. , Theko ea fektheri ea pele ea Xinxiangyin e fihlile ho 12,500 yuan/ton.
Mathoasong a Mmesa 2021, lik'hamphani tse kang Zhongshun Cleanroom le Vinda International li ile tsa tsoela pele ho phahamisa litheko.
tsokolate tsa lebokose
Zhongshun Jierou o boletse lengolong la keketseho ea theko ka nako eo hore litheko tsa thepa e tala li ntse li nyoloha, 'me litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea k'hamphani le litšenyehelo tsa ts'ebetso li ntse li eketseha. Vinda International (Beijing) e boetse e boletse hore ka lebaka la keketseho e tsoelang pele ea litheko tsa thepa e tala, litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso li eketsehile haholo, 'me e rera ho fetola litheko tsa lihlahisoa tse ling tsa mofuta oa Vinda ho tloha ka la 1 Mmesa.
Kamora moo, kotareng ya pele ya 2022, Zhongshun Jierou e ile ya qala ho phahamisa ditheko hape, mme ya tswela pele ka mekhahlelo. Ho tloha kotareng ya boraro ya 2022, Zhongshun Jierou e ile ya phahamisa ditheko tsa boholo ba dihlahiswa tsa yona.
Leha ho le jwalo, keketseho e tswelang pele ya ditheko tsa dikhamphani tsa pampiri ha e a ka ya lebisa keketsehong e kgolo tshebetsong ya khamphani. Ho fapana le hoo, tshebetso ya khamphani e ile ya theoha ka lebaka la ditjeo tse ntseng di nyoloha.
kuku ea lebokose la kuku
Ho tloha ka 2020 ho isa ho 2022, lekeno la Zhongshun Jierou e tla ba li-yuan tse libilione tse 7.824, li-yuan tse libilione tse 9.15, le li-yuan tse libilione tse 8.57, ka ho latellana, ka phaello e hloekileng ea li-yuan tse limilione tse 906, li-yuan tse limilione tse 581, le li-yuan tse limilione tse 349, le phaello e felletseng ea li-yuan tse libilione tse 41.32% le li-yuan tse libilione tse 3.592 ka ho latellana. %, 31.96%, le sekhahla sa tsoala e hloekileng e ne e le 11.58%, 6.35%, le 4.07%, ka ho latellana.
Lekeno la Vinda International ho tloha ka 2020 ho isa ho 2022 e tla ba yuan tse libilione tse 13.897, yuan tse libilione tse 15.269, le yuan tse libilione tse 17.345, ka phaello e setseng ea yuan tse libilione tse 1.578, yuan tse libilione tse 1.34, le yuan tse libilione tse 631. 28.24%, 'me sekhahla sa tsoala se setseng e ne e le 11.35%, 8.77%, le 3.64%, ka ho latellana.
Ho tloha ka 2020 ho isa ho 2022, lekeno la Hengan International e tla ba li-yuan tse libilione tse 22.374, li-yuan tse libilione tse 20.79, le li-yuan tse libilione tse 22.616 ka ho latellana, 'me khoebo ea lisele e tla ikarabella bakeng sa 46.41%, 47.34%, le 54.16% ka ho latellana; phaello e tla ba li-yuan tse libilione tse 4.608 le li-yuan tse libilione tse 3.29 ka ho latellana, li-yuan tse libilione tse 1.949; phaello e felletseng e ne e le 42.26%, 37.38%, le 34% ka ho latellana, 'me phaello e felletseng e ne e le 20.6%, 15.83%, le 8.62%.
Lilemong tse tharo tse fetileng, leha lik'hamphani tse tharo tse kholo tsa pampiri ea malapa li ntse li tsoela pele ho phahamisa litheko, ho ntse ho le thata ho fokotsa litšenyehelo tse ntseng li phahama, 'me ts'ebetso ea k'hamphani le phaello li ntse li tsoela pele ho theoha.
lebokose la lipompong tsa khoeli le khoeli
02. Ntlha ea ho phahama ha molumo oa molumo e ka tla haufinyane
Ka la 19 Mmesa, Zhongshun Jierou e lokollotse tlaleho ea eona ea pele ea kotara bakeng sa 2023. Tsebiso e bontša hore kotara ea pele ea 2023, chelete e kenang ea ts'ebetso ea k'hamphani e ne e le li-yuan tse libilione tse 2.061, e leng keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 9.35%; phaello e setseng e bakoang ke beng ba likarolo tsa lik'hamphani tse thathamisitsoeng e ne e le li-yuan tse limilione tse 89.44, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 32.93%.
Ho ya ka pono ya kotara ya pele ya 2023, tshebetso ya khamphani ha e so fetohe.
Leha ho le jwalo, ha re sheba mokhoa wa theko ya pulp, ho na le matshwao a tshepo. Ho ya ka data e tswelang pele ya matla a maholo a pulp, matla a maholo a pulp a tswetse pele ho nyoloha ho tloha ho 4252 yuan/ton ka la 3 Hlakola 2020 ho ya hodimo ho 7652 yuan/ton ka la 1 Hlakubele 2022. Kamora moo, e ile ya fetoha hanyane, empa ya dula e le hoo e ka bang 6700 yuan/ton. Ka la 12 Tshitwe 2022, matla a maholo a pulp a tswetse pele ho nyoloha ho fihla hodimo ho 7452 yuan/ton, mme ya tswela pele ho theoha. Ho tloha ka la 23 Mmesa 2023, matla a maholo a pulp a tswetse pele ho ba 5208 yuan/ton, e theohileng ka 30.11% ho tloha ntlheng e phahameng ya pele.
Haeba theko ea pulp e bolokoa boemong bona ka 2023, e tla batla e tšoana le ea halofo ea pele ea 2019.
Karolong ea pele ea 2019, sekhahla sa phaello e felletseng sa Zhongshun Jierou e ne e le 36.69%, 'me sekhahla sa phaello e felletseng e ne e le 8.66%; sekhahla sa phaello e felletseng sa Vinda International e ne e le 27.38%, 'me sekhahla sa phaello e felletseng e ne e le 4.35%; sekhahla sa phaello e felletseng sa Hengan International e ne e le 37.04%, 'me sekhahla sa phaello e felletseng e ne e le 17.67%. Ho latela pono ena, haeba theko ea pulp e bolokoa e le hoo e ka bang 5,208 yuan/ton ka 2023, sekhahla sa tsoala se felletseng sa lik'hamphani tse tharo tse kholo tsa pampiri ea malapa se lebelletsoe ho eketseha haholo, 'me ts'ebetso ea tsona le eona e tla tlisa phetoho.
CITIC Securities e bolela esale pele hore potolohong e theohang ea litheko tsa pulp ho tloha ka 2019 ho isa ho 2020, litheko tsa kantle tsa pulp ea softwood/hardwood li tla ba tlase ho US$570/450/tonne. Ho tloha ka 2019 ho isa ho 2020 le halofo ea pele ea 2021, Vinda International'phaello e hloekileng e tla ba 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, sekhahla sa tsoala se hloekileng sa Zhongshun Jierou ke 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% ka ho latellana, 'me sekhahla sa phaello e sebetsang sa khoebo ea lisele tsa Hengan International ke 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Kotareng ea bone ea 2022, phaello e setseng ea Vinda International le Zhongshun Jierou e tla ba 0.4% le 3.1% ka ho latellana. Karolong ea pele ea 2022, phaello e setseng ea khoebo ea Hengan International ea lithaole tsa pampiri e tla ba -2.6%. Likhoebo li tla tsepamisa maikutlo ho khutliseng phaello, boiteko ba ho khothaletsa thekiso bo lebelletsoe ho laoloa ka har'a mefuta e itseng, 'me litheko tsa terminal li tsitsitse haholo..lebokose la lipompong tsa khoeli le khoeli
Ha ho nahanoa ka sebaka sa tlholisano (bokgoni bo bocha ba tlhahiso ea pampiri ea tissue ka 2020/2021 ke lithane tse limilione tse 1.89/2.33) le leano le etellang pele la theko, CITIC Securities e bolela esale pele hore sekhahla sa phaello sa pampiri ea tissue e etellang pele potolohong ena ea potoloho ea theko ea pulp se lebelletsoe ho khutlela ho 8%-10% %.
Hona jwale, ditheko tsa di-pulp di se di theohile haholo. Tlas'a semelo sena, dikhamphani tsa pampiri tsa malapa di lebelletswe ho tlisa phetoho tshebetsong.
Nako ea poso: Mots'eanong-15-2023
