Daga matsayin ci gaban manyan kamfanonin marufi na Turai zuwa ga yanayin masana'antar kwali a shekarar 2023
A wannan shekarar, manyan kamfanonin shirya kwalaye na Turai sun ci gaba da samun riba mai yawa duk da tabarbarewar yanayin, amma har yaushe nasarar da suka samu za ta iya dorewa? Gabaɗaya, shekarar 2022 za ta zama shekara mai wahala ga manyan kamfanonin shirya kwalaye. Tare da hauhawar farashin makamashi da farashin aiki, manyan kamfanonin Turai ciki har da Schmofi Kappa Group da Desma Group suma suna fama da matsalar farashin takarda.
A cewar masu sharhi a Jeffries, tun daga shekarar 2020, farashin allon kwantena da aka sake yin amfani da shi, wani muhimmin bangare na samar da takardar marufi, ya ninka sau biyu a Turai. A madadin haka, farashin allon kwantena da aka yi kai tsaye daga katako maimakon kwalaye da aka sake yin amfani da su ya bi irin wannan hanya. A lokaci guda, masu sayayya da ke da niyyar rage kashe kudi suna rage kashe kudi a yanar gizo, wanda hakan ke rage bukatar kwalaye.
Kwanakin ɗaukaka da sabuwar annobar kambi ta haifar a da, kamar oda da ke aiki a cikakken iko, ƙarancin wadatar kwalaye, da hauhawar farashin hannun jari na manyan kamfanonin marufi… duk wannan ya ƙare. Duk da haka, duk da haka, waɗannan kamfanonin suna yin mafi kyau fiye da kowane lokaci. Smurfi Kappa kwanan nan ya ba da rahoton ƙaruwar kashi 43% na ribar kuɗi kafin riba, haraji, raguwar daraja da amortization daga Janairu zuwa ƙarshen Satumba, yayin da kuɗin shiga na aiki ya karu da kashi ɗaya bisa uku. Wannan yana nufin kudaden shiga da ribar kuɗi na 2022 sun riga sun wuce matakan kafin annoba, duk da cewa sun kasance kwata na ƙarshen 2022.
A halin yanzu, Desma, kamfanin da ke da lamba ɗaya a Burtaniya mai yin kwali, ya ɗaga hasashensa na wannan shekarar zuwa 30 ga Afrilu 2023, yana mai cewa ribar da aka daidaita a rabin farko ya kamata ta kai aƙalla fam miliyan 400, idan aka kwatanta da na 2019. Wani babban kamfanin yin kwali, Mondi, ya ƙara ribar da ke ƙasa da kashi 3 cikin ɗari, fiye da ninka ribar da ya samu a rabin farko na shekarar, duk da cewa har yanzu ba a warware matsalolin da ke tattare da kasuwancinsa na Rasha ba.
Sabuntawar ciniki na Desma a watan Oktoba bai yi cikakken bayani ba, amma ya ambaci "ƙaramin adadi kaɗan ga akwatunan kwali masu kama da juna". Haka nan, ƙaruwar Smurf Kappa mai ƙarfi ba sakamakon sayar da ƙarin akwatuna ba ne - tallace-tallacen akwatunan kwali sun yi ƙasa a cikin watanni tara na farko na 2022 kuma har ma sun faɗi da kashi 3% a kwata na uku. Akasin haka, waɗannan manyan kamfanoni suna ƙara ribar kamfanoni ta hanyar ƙara farashin kayayyaki.
Bugu da ƙari, da alama yawan ciniki bai inganta ba. A cikin kiran samun kuɗi na wannan watan, Shugaban Kamfanin Smurfi Kappa Tony Smurphy ya ce: "Yawan ciniki a kwata na huɗu yayi kama da wanda muka gani a kwata na uku. Ana ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Tabbas, ina tsammanin wasu kasuwanni kamar Burtaniya da Jamus sun yi ƙasa a cikin watanni biyu ko uku da suka gabata."
Wannan ya haifar da tambaya: me zai faru da masana'antar akwatin kwali a shekarar 2023? Idan kasuwa da buƙatun masu amfani na marufi na kwali suka fara daidaita, shin masana'antun marufi na kwali za su iya ci gaba da ƙara farashi don samun riba mai yawa? Masu sharhi sun gamsu da sabuntawar SmurfKappa idan aka yi la'akari da mawuyacin yanayin babban da kuma raunin jigilar kwali da aka ruwaito a cikin gida. A lokaci guda, Smurfi Kappa ya jaddada cewa ƙungiyar tana da "kwatancen da suka fi ƙarfi fiye da bara, matakin da muka ɗauka a matsayin wanda ba zai dore ba".
Duk da haka, masu zuba jari suna da shakku sosai. Hannun jarin Smurfi Kappa ya ragu da kashi 25% fiye da lokacin da annobar ta yi tsanani, kuma na Desmar ya ragu da kashi 31%. Wanene ya yi daidai? Nasarar ba wai kawai ta dogara ne akan tallace-tallace na kwali da allo ba. Masu sharhi a Jefferies sun yi hasashen cewa farashin kwantenar da aka sake yin amfani da ita zai faɗi idan aka yi la'akari da ƙarancin buƙatar babban abu, amma kuma sun jaddada cewa farashin takarda da makamashi na ɓacewa suma suna raguwa, domin wannan ma yana nufin cewa farashin samar da marufi yana raguwa.
"Abin da ake yawan mantawa da shi, a ganinmu, shi ne cewa ƙarancin farashi na iya zama babban haɓaka ga samun kuɗi kuma a ƙarshe, ga masu kera akwatunan kwali, fa'idar tanadin kuɗi za ta kasance a kan duk wani yuwuwar ƙarancin farashin akwatunan. An nuna a baya cewa wannan ya fi tsauri a kan hanya (lokacin watanni 3-6). Gabaɗaya, hauhawar farashin kuɗi daga ƙarancin farashi yana raguwa kaɗan ta hanyar hauhawar farashin daga kudaden shiga," in ji manazarci a Jeffries Say.
A lokaci guda kuma, tambayar buƙatun kanta ba ta da sauƙi. Duk da cewa kasuwancin e-commerce da raguwar farashin kayayyaki sun haifar da wasu barazana ga aikin kamfanonin marufi masu rufi, mafi yawan kaso na tallace-tallace na waɗannan ƙungiyoyi galibi yana faruwa ne a wasu kasuwanci. A Desma, kusan kashi 80% na kudaden shiga suna fitowa ne daga kayan masarufi masu saurin tafiya (FMCG), waɗanda galibi samfuran da ake sayarwa a manyan kantuna ne, kuma kusan kashi 70% na marufin kwali na Smurfi Kappa ana isar da shi ga abokan cinikin FMCG. Wannan ya kamata ya zama mai juriya yayin da kasuwar ƙarshe ke bunƙasa, kuma Desma ta lura da kyakkyawan ci gaba a fannoni kamar maye gurbin filastik.
Don haka yayin da buƙata ta canza, da wuya ta faɗi ƙasa da wani matsayi - musamman idan aka yi la'akari da dawowar abokan ciniki na masana'antu waɗanda annobar COVID-19 ta shafa. Wannan yana da goyon bayan sakamakon MacFarlane (MACF) kwanan nan, wanda ya lura da karuwar kuɗaɗen shiga da kashi 14% a cikin watanni shida na farko na 2022 a matsayin murmurewa a fannin sufurin jiragen sama, injiniyanci da kuma karɓar baƙi fiye da rage raguwar siyayya ta yanar gizo.
Masu tattara kayayyaki na roba suna amfani da annobar don inganta jadawalin kuɗinsu. Shugaban Kamfanin Smurfi Kappa Tony Smurphy ya jaddada cewa tsarin jarin kamfaninsa yana "cikin mafi kyawun matsayi da muka taɓa gani" a tarihinmu, tare da bashi/kuɗi kafin a cire kuɗi sau da yawa ƙasa da sau 1.4. Babban jami'in Desmar Myles Roberts ya maimaita hakan a watan Satumba, yana mai cewa rabon bashin/kuɗin da ƙungiyarsa ta samu kafin a cire kuɗi ya faɗi zuwa sau 1.6, "ɗaya daga cikin mafi ƙarancin rabon da muka gani a cikin shekaru da yawa".
Duk wannan ya nuna cewa wasu masu sharhi suna ganin kasuwa tana yin abin da ya wuce gona da iri, musamman game da masu shirya FTSE 100, farashin da ya kai kashi 20% ƙasa da kiyasin da aka yi na samun riba kafin a fara amortization. Tabbas ƙimar su tana da kyau, inda Desma ke ciniki a rabon P/E na gaba na 8.7 kawai idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin shekaru biyar na 11.1, da kuma rabon P/E na gaba na Schmurf Kappa na 10.4 idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin shekaru biyar na 12.3. Yawancin zai dogara ne akan ikon kamfanin na shawo kan masu zuba jari cewa za su iya ci gaba da mamakin abin da za su iya yi a shekarar 2023.
Lokacin Saƙo: Disamba-13-2022
