Mai ke kūlana hoʻomohala o nā pilikua hoʻopili corrugated ʻEulopa e ʻike i ke ʻano o ka ʻoihana pahu pepa ma 2023
I kēia makahiki, ua mālama nā hui nui o ka ʻōpala pahu ʻEulopa i nā loaʻa kālā kiʻekiʻe ʻoiai ke kūlana e emi ana, akā pehea ka lōʻihi o kā lākou lanakila lanakila? Ma keʻano holoʻokoʻa, he makahiki paʻakikī ka makahiki 2022 no nā hui nui o ka ʻōpala pahu. Me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai ikehu a me nā kumukūʻai hana, ʻo nā hui kiʻekiʻe o ʻEulopa e like me Schmofi Kappa Group lāua ʻo Desma Group ke hakakā nei hoʻi e hana me nā kumukūʻai pepa.
Wahi a nā loiloi ma Jeffries, mai ka makahiki 2020, ua aneane pālua ke kumukūʻai o ka papa pahu hana hou ʻia, kahi ʻāpana koʻikoʻi o ka hana pepa ʻōpala, ma ʻEulopa. Ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ua hahai ke kumukūʻai o ka papa pahu puʻupaʻa i hana pololei ʻia mai nā lāʻau ma mua o nā pahu hana hou ʻia i kahi ala like. I ka manawa like, ke hōʻemi nei nā mea kūʻai aku e noʻonoʻo ana i ke kumukūʻai i kā lākou hoʻolilo kālā ma ka pūnaewele, kahi e hōʻemi ai i ke koi no nā pahu.
ʻO nā lā hanohano i lawe ʻia mai e ka maʻi ahulau hou, e like me nā kauoha e holo ana me ka piha piha, ka lako paʻa o nā pahu pepa, a me ke piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai waihona o nā pilikua hoʻopili ... ua pau kēia mau mea a pau. Eia naʻe, ke hana maikaʻi nei kēia mau ʻoihana ma mua o ka wā ma mua. Ua hōʻike koke aku nei ʻo Smurfi Kappa i ka piʻi ʻana o 43% o ka loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka uku paneʻe, nā ʻauhau, ka emi ʻana o ka waiwai a me ka amortization mai Ianuali a hiki i ka hopena o Kepakemapa, ʻoiai ua piʻi ka loaʻa kālā hana ma ka hapakolu. ʻO ia hoʻi, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o kāna loaʻa kālā a me nā loaʻa kālā ma mua o nā pae ma mua o ka maʻi ahulau, ʻoiai he hapaha o ke ala a hiki i ka hopena o 2022.
I kēia manawa, ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻo Desma, ka hui nui o nā ʻōpala corrugated helu ʻekahi o UK, i kāna wānana no ka makahiki a hiki i ka lā 30 ʻApelila 2023, me ka ʻōlelo ʻana he pono ka loaʻa kālā hana i hoʻoponopono ʻia no ka hapa mua ma ka liʻiliʻi he £400 miliona, ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2019. he 351 miliona paona. ʻO kekahi hui nui o nā ʻōpala, ʻo Mondi, ua hoʻonui i kāna palena kumu ma 3 mau pakeneka, ʻoi aku ma mua o ka pāpālua ʻana o kāna loaʻa kālā i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki, ʻoiai ke koe nei nā pilikia i hoʻoholo ʻole ʻia i kāna ʻoihana Lūkini ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī.
ʻAʻole i nui nā kikoʻī o ka hōʻano hou kālepa ʻo Desma i ʻOkakopa, akā ua ʻōlelo ʻia "he haʻahaʻa iki ka nui no nā pahu corrugated like". Pēlā nō, ʻaʻole ka ulu ikaika o Smurf Kappa ma muli o ke kūʻai aku ʻana i nā pahu hou aku - ua palahalaha kāna kūʻai aku ʻana i nā pahu corrugated i nā mahina ʻeiwa mua o 2022 a ua hāʻule hoʻi ma 3% i ka hapaha ʻekolu. Ma ke ʻano ʻē, hoʻonui kēia mau pilikua i ka loaʻa kālā o nā ʻoihana ma ka hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻana i nā kumukūʻai o nā huahana.
Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole i hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia ka nui o ke kālepa. Ma ke kelepona loaʻa kālā o kēia mahina, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Tony Smurphy, Luna Nui o Smurfi Kappa: "Ua like loa ka nui o ke kālepa ʻana i ka hapaha ʻehā me ka mea a mākou i ʻike ai i ka hapaha ʻekolu. Ke piʻi nei. ʻOiaʻiʻo, manaʻo wau ua palahalaha kekahi mau mākeke e like me UK a me Kelemania no nā mahina ʻelua a ʻekolu paha i hala."
Ke hāpai nei kēia i ka nīnau: he aha ka mea e hiki mai ana i ka ʻoihana pahu corrugated i ka makahiki 2023? Inā hoʻomaka ka mākeke a me ke koi o ka mea kūʻai aku no ka ʻōpala corrugated e pae, hiki i nā mea hana ʻōpala corrugated ke hoʻomau i ka hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻana i nā kumukūʻai e loaʻa ai nā loaʻa kālā kiʻekiʻe? Ua hauʻoli nā mea loiloi i ka hōʻano hou a SmurfKappa i hāʻawi ʻia i ke kua macro paʻakikī a me nā ukana pahu palupalu i hōʻike ʻia ma ka home. I ka manawa like, ua hoʻoikaika ʻo Smurfi Kappa he "hoʻohālikelike ikaika loa ka hui me ka makahiki i hala, kahi pae a mākou i manaʻo mau ai he hiki ʻole ke hoʻomau".
Eia nō naʻe, kānalua loa nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā. ʻOi aku ka haʻahaʻa o nā ʻāpana o Smurfi Kappa ma mua o ka wā kiʻekiʻe o ka maʻi ahulau, a ua emi iho ʻo Desmar ma 31%. ʻO wai ka mea pololei? ʻAʻole hilinaʻi wale ka holomua i ke kūʻai aku ʻana i nā pahu pepa a me nā papa. Ua wānana nā loiloi ma Jefferies e hāʻule nā kumukūʻai pahu pahu hana hou ʻia ma muli o ka nāwaliwali o ke koi macro, akā ua hoʻoikaika pū kekahi e hāʻule ana nā kumukūʻai pepa ʻōpala a me ka ikehu, no ka mea, ʻo ia hoʻi ke hāʻule nei ke kumukūʻai o ka hana ʻana i nā ʻōpala.
"ʻO ka mea i nānā pinepine ʻole ʻia, i ko mākou manaʻo, ʻo ia ka hiki i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa ke lilo i mea hoʻoikaika nui i ka loaʻa kālā a ʻo ka mea hope loa, no nā mea hana pahu corrugated, ʻo ka pōmaikaʻi o ka mālama kālā e lilo ia i mea e uku ai i nā kumukūʻai pahu haʻahaʻa. Ua hōʻike ʻia ma mua he ʻoi aku ka paʻa o kēia ma ke ala e iho ai (3-6 mahina lag). Ma keʻano holoʻokoʻa, ua hoʻopau hapa ʻia nā pilikia kālā mai ke kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa e nā pilikia kālā mai ka loaʻa kālā." loiloi ma Jeffries Say.
I ka manawa like, ʻaʻole maopopo loa ka nīnau o nā koi ponoʻī. ʻOiai ua hoʻoweliweli ka e-commerce a me ka lohi ʻana i ka hana o nā ʻoihana hoʻopili corrugated, ʻo ka hapa nui o ke kūʻai aku ʻana o kēia mau hui ma nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe. Ma Desma, ma kahi o 80% o ka loaʻa kālā mai nā waiwai kūʻai wikiwiki (FMCG), ʻo ia hoʻi nā huahana i kūʻai ʻia ma nā hale kūʻai nui, a ma kahi o 70% o ka hoʻopili pahu pahu a Smurfi Kappa i hoʻolako ʻia i nā mea kūʻai aku FMCG. Pono kēia e hōʻoia i ka paʻa ʻana i ka wā e ulu ai ka mākeke hope loa, a ua ʻike ʻo Desma i ka ulu maikaʻi ʻana ma nā wahi e like me ka hoʻololi plastik.
No laila, ʻoiai ua loli ke koi, ʻaʻole paha e hāʻule ma lalo o kekahi kiko - ʻoiai ke hoʻi mai nei nā mea kūʻai aku ʻoihana i hoʻopilikia nui ʻia e ka maʻi ahulau COVID-19. Kākoʻo ʻia kēia e nā hopena hou mai MacFarlane (MACF), nāna i ʻike i ka piʻi ʻana o 14% o ka loaʻa kālā i nā mahina ʻeono mua o 2022 ma ke ʻano he hoʻōla hou ʻana i nā mea kūʻai aku mokulele, ʻenekinia a me ka hoʻokipa ma mua o ka hoʻopau ʻana i ka lohi o ke kūʻai pūnaewele.
Ke hoʻohana nei nā mea hoʻopaʻa ʻōpala i ka maʻi ahulau e hoʻomaikaʻi i kā lākou mau pepa kaulike. Ua hoʻoikaika ʻo Tony Smurphy, ka Luna Nui o Smurfi Kappa, ʻo ke ʻano kapikala o kāna hui "aia ma ke kūlana maikaʻi loa a mākou i ʻike ai" i ko mākou mōʻaukala, me ka nui o ka hōʻaiʻē/loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka amortization ma lalo o 1.4 mau manawa. Ua ʻōlelo hou ʻo Myles Roberts, ka luna hoʻokele o Desmar, i kēlā i Kepakemapa, me ka ʻōlelo ʻana ua hāʻule ka lakio hōʻaiʻē/loaʻa kālā o kāna hui i 1.6 mau manawa, "ʻo ia kekahi o nā lakio haʻahaʻa loa a mākou i ʻike ai i nā makahiki he nui".
Hoʻohui kēia mau mea a pau i ke ʻano o ka manaʻo o kekahi poʻe loiloi ua nui loa ka pane ʻana o ka mākeke, ʻoiai e pili ana i nā mea hoʻopaʻa FTSE 100, e uku ana ma kahi o 20% haʻahaʻa ma mua o nā kuhi manaʻo no ka loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka amortization. He mea hoihoi maoli kā lākou loiloi, me Desma e kālepa ana ma kahi lakio P/E mua o 8.7 wale nō e kūʻē i ka awelika ʻelima makahiki o 11.1, a me ka lakio P/E mua o Schmurf Kappa o 10.4 e kūʻē i ka awelika ʻelima makahiki o 12.3. E hilinaʻi nui ʻia i ka hiki o ka hui ke hōʻoiaʻiʻo i nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā e hiki iā lākou ke hoʻomau i ka hoʻopūhoihoi i ka makahiki 2023.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Dec-13-2022
