Kuva aho inganda nini zo mu Burayi zikorera mu gupakira amabati zigeze, ukareba uko inganda zikora amakarito zihagaze mu 2023.

Kuva aho inganda nini zo mu Burayi zikorera mu gupakira amabati zigeze, ukareba uko inganda zikora amakarito zihagaze mu 2023.

Muri uyu mwaka, ibigo bikomeye byo mu Burayi bicuruza amakarito byakomeje kunguka cyane nubwo ibintu bigenda birushaho kuba bibi, ariko se igihe cyabyo cyo gutsinda gishobora kumara? Muri rusange, umwaka wa 2022 uzaba umwaka utoroshye ku bigo bikomeye bicuruza amakarito. Kubera izamuka ry'ibiciro by'ingufu n'ikiguzi cy'abakozi, ibigo bikomeye byo mu Burayi birimo Schmofi Kappa Group na Desma Group nabyo biragorwa no guhangana n'ibiciro by'impapuro.

Nk’uko inzobere muri Jeffries zibivuga, kuva mu 2020, igiciro cy’amabati yo mu bwoko bwa “containerboard” asubirwamo, igice cy’ingenzi mu gukora impapuro zo gupfunyika, cyikubye hafi kabiri mu Burayi. Ubundi buryo, igiciro cy’amabati yo mu bwoko bwa “virgin containerboard” akozwe mu biti aho kuba amabati yo mu bwoko bwa “recycled cards” cyakurikiye inzira nk’iyo. Muri icyo gihe, abaguzi batekereza ku kiguzi barimo kugabanya amafaranga bakoresha kuri interineti, ibyo bigatuma bagabanya icyifuzo cy’amabati.

Iminsi y'icyubahiro yigeze kuzanwa n'icyorezo gishya cy'ikamba, nko gutumiza ibicuruzwa ku buryo bwuzuye, gutanga amakarito make, n'izamuka ry'ibiciro by'imigabane y'ibigo bikomeye bipakira… ibi byose byararangiye. Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, aya masosiyete arimo gukora neza kurusha mbere hose. Smurfi Kappa iherutse gutangaza ko inyungu ziyongereyeho 43% mbere y'inyungu, imisoro, igabanuka ry'agaciro n'igabanuka ry'inguzanyo kuva muri Mutarama kugeza mu mpera za Nzeri, mu gihe inyungu ku mikorere yiyongereyeho kimwe cya gatatu. Ibyo bivuze ko inyungu n'inyungu byayo byo mu 2022 byamaze kurenga urugero rwa mbere y'icyorezo, nubwo byari kimwe cya kane cy'inzira yo kugera mu mpera za 2022.

Hagati aho, Desma, ikigo gikomeye mu Bwongereza gipakira ibikoresho bya kontineri, yazamuye icyerekezo cyayo cy'umwaka kugeza ku ya 30 Mata 2023, ivuga ko inyungu isanzwe mu gice cya mbere cy'umwaka igomba kuba nibura miliyoni 400 z'amapawundi, ugereranije n'umwaka wa 2019. yari miliyoni 351 z'amapawundi. Indi sosiyete ikomeye mu gupakira ibikoresho, Mondi, yongereye inyungu yayo ku kigero cya 3 ku ijana, ikubye kabiri inyungu yayo mu gice cya mbere cy'umwaka, nubwo ibibazo bitarakemuka mu bucuruzi bwayo bukomeye bw'Uburusiya.

Amakuru mashya ya Desma mu bucuruzi bwo mu kwezi k'Ukwakira ntabwo yari ahagije ku bisobanuro birambuye, ariko yavuze ko “umubare muto gato w’udusanduku twa corrugated dusa na two”. Mu buryo nk'ubwo, iterambere rikomeye rya Smurf Kappa ntabwo ari ukugurisha udusanduku twinshi – kugurisha udusanduku twa corrugated byagabanutse mu mezi icyenda ya mbere ya 2022 ndetse byanagabanutseho 3% mu gihembwe cya gatatu. Ibinyuranye n'ibyo, ibi bihangange byongera inyungu z'ibigo binyuze mu kuzamura ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa.

Byongeye kandi, ingano y'ubucuruzi isa nkaho itarushijeho kuba nziza. Mu ihamagara ry'inyungu ry'uku kwezi, umuyobozi mukuru wa Smurfi Kappa, Tony Smurphy, yagize ati: “Ingano y'ibikorwa mu gihembwe cya kane isa cyane n'iyo twabonye mu gihembwe cya gatatu. Irazamuka. Birumvikana ko ntekereza ko amasoko amwe nk'Ubwongereza n'Ubudage yahindutse mu mezi abiri cyangwa atatu ashize.”

Ibi bitera kwibaza: bizagenda bite ku nganda zikora amasanduku ya corrugate mu 2023? Niba isoko n'abaguzi basaba amasanduku ya corrugate bitangiye kuzamuka, ese abakora amasanduku ya corrugate bazakomeza kuzamura ibiciro kugira ngo babone inyungu nyinshi? Abasesenguzi bishimiye amakuru ya SmurfKappa bitewe n'imiterere y'ibintu bikomeye ndetse n'uburyo amakarito yoherezwa mu gihugu imbere mu buryo budakomeye. Muri icyo gihe, Smurfi Kappa yashimangiye ko itsinda "ryari rifite igereranya rikomeye cyane n'umwaka ushize, urwego twahoraga dutekereza ko rudashoboka."

Ariko, abashoramari barashidikanya cyane. Imigabane ya Smurfi Kappa iri hasi ho 25% ugereranyije n'igihe icyorezo cyagwiriye cyane, naho iya Desmar igabanukaho 31%. Ni nde ufite ukuri? Intsinzi ntishingira gusa ku kugurisha amakarito n'amabati. Abasesenguzi bo muri Jefferies bateganya ko ibiciro by'amabati yongerewe gukoreshwa bizagabanuka bitewe n'ubukene buke bw'ibicuruzwa, ariko banashimangira ko ikiguzi cy'impapuro n'ingufu nabyo biri kugabanuka, kuko ibi bivuze ko ikiguzi cyo gukora amapaki kiri kugabanuka.

“Mu buryo dutekereza, icyo abantu bakunze kwirengagiza ni uko ibiciro biri hasi bishobora kuzamura cyane inyungu, kandi amaherezo, ku bakora amasanduku ya corrugated box, inyungu yo kuzigama amafaranga izaba iyo ibiciro bya corrugated box bishobora kuba biri hasi. Byagaragaye mbere ko ibi birushaho kuba bibi mu gihe cyo kugabanuka (amezi 3-6). Muri rusange, inyungu zikomoka ku biciro biri hasi zigabanukaho igice bitewe n’ibiciro bikomoka ku nyungu.” Umusesenguzi wa Jeffries Say.

Muri icyo gihe, ikibazo cy’ibisabwa ubwabyo nticyoroshye na gato. Nubwo ubucuruzi bwo kuri interineti n’igabanuka ry’umuvuduko byateje akaga ku mikorere y’ibigo bipakira ibintu bikozwe mu buryo bwa corrugate, igice kinini cy’ibicuruzwa by’aya matsinda gikunze kuba mu bindi bigo. Muri Desma, hafi 80% by’amafaranga yinjira aturuka ku bicuruzwa bicuruzwa byihuse (FMCG), ahanini bikaba ari ibicuruzwa bigurishwa mu maduka manini, naho hafi 70% by’amapaki ya Smurfi Kappa atangwa ku bakiriya ba FMCG. Ibi bigomba gukomera uko isoko rigenda ritera imbere, kandi Desma yagaragaje iterambere ryiza mu bice nko gusimbuza pulasitiki.

Nubwo icyifuzo cyagiye gihindagurika, birashoboka cyane ko kitazagabanuka cyane cyane bitewe n’uko abakiriya b’inganda bahungabanyijwe cyane n’icyorezo cya COVID-19 bagarutse. Ibi bishyigikiwe n’ibyavuye muri MacFarlane (MACF) iherutse kugaragaza ko inyungu yinjijwe yazamutseho 14% mu mezi atandatu ya mbere ya 2022, nk’izamuka ry’abakiriya b’indege, abahanga mu by’ubwubatsi n’abakira abakiriya, kurusha uko byagabanyije igabanuka ry’abagura kuri interineti.

Abakora ubucuruzi bwa corrugated nabo bakoresha icyorezo kugira ngo banoze ingengo y'imari yabo. Umuyobozi mukuru wa Smurfi Kappa, Tony Smurphy, yashimangiye ko imiterere y'imari shingiro y'ikigo cye "iri mu mwanya mwiza cyane twigeze tubona" ​​mu mateka yacu, aho umwenda/inyungu mbere yo kwishyura ikiguzi inshuro nyinshi munsi ya 1.4. Umuyobozi mukuru wa Desmar, Myles Roberts, yashimangiye ibyo muri Nzeri, avuga ko igipimo cy'umwenda/inyungu z'itsinda rye mbere yo kwishyura ikiguzi cyagabanutseho inshuro 1.6, "kimwe mu bipimo biri hasi cyane twabonye mu myaka myinshi".

Ibi byose bitanga igitekerezo ku basesenguzi bamwe bemeza ko isoko ririmo gukabya, cyane cyane ku bijyanye na FTSE 100 packers, igiciro kiri munsi ya 20% ugereranije n’ibyateganijwe ku nyungu mbere yo kuzishyura. Ibiciro byabo birashimishije cyane, aho Desma igura ku gipimo cya P/E cya 8.7 gusa ugereranije n’ikigereranyo cy’imyaka itanu cya 11.1, na Schmurf Kappa's forward P/E cya 10.4 ugereranije n’ikigereranyo cy’imyaka itanu cya 12.3. Byinshi bizaterwa n’ubushobozi bw’ikigo bwo kwemeza abashoramari ko bashobora gukomeza gutungurana muri 2023.