Kubva pakukura kwemakambani makuru ekuEurope anogadzira machira emakatoni kusvika pakuona mafambiro eindasitiri yemakatoni muna 2023
Gore rino, makambani makuru ekurongedza makatoni ekuEurope akaramba aine purofiti yakakura pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu ari kuipa, asi kukunda kwavo kunogona kuramba kwenguva yakareba sei? Zvose, gore ra2022 richava gore rakaoma kune makambani makuru ekurongedza makatoni. Nekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi uye mari yevashandi, makambani makuru ekuEurope anosanganisira Schmofi Kappa Group neDesma Group ari kutambudzikawo nemitengo yemapepa.
Sekureva kwevaongorori vekuJeffries, kubvira mugore ra2020, mutengo webhodhi remagaba rakadzokororwa, chikamu chakakosha chekugadzira mapepa ekurongedza, wawedzera kaviri muEurope. Neimwe nzira, mutengo webhodhi remagaba rakagadziriswa rakagadzirwa zvakananga kubva pamatanda pane kubva pamakatoni akadzokororwa wakatevera nzira yakafanana. Panguva imwe chete, vatengi vane hanya nemutengo vari kuderedza mari yavanoshandisa paindaneti, izvo zvinoderedza kudiwa kwemakatoni.
Mazuva ekubwinya akambounzwa nedenda idzva rekorona, akadai semaodha ari kushanda zvizere, kuwanikwa kwemakatoni kwakaderera, uye mitengo yemasheya emakambani makuru ekurongedza… zvese izvi zvapera. Kunyangwe zvakadaro, makambani aya ari kuita zviri nani kupfuura kare. Smurfi Kappa ichangobva kutaura nezvekukwira kwemari inowanikwa ne43% mubereko usati wasvika, mitero, kudzikira kwemitengo uye amortization kubva muna Ndira kusvika kumagumo aGunyana, ukuwo mari yekushanda yakakwira nechikamu chimwe muzvitatu. Izvi zvinoreva kuti mari yayo yegore ra2022 nemari inowanikwa zvatopfuura mwero wepamberi pedenda, kunyangwe iri chikamu chimwe muzvina chenzira yekupera kwa2022.
Zvichakadaro, Desma, kambani huru yeUK inogadzira machira epurasitiki, yawedzera fungidziro yayo yegore kusvika musi wa30 Kubvumbi 2023, ichiti purofiti yekushanda yakagadziriswa yehafu yekutanga inofanira kunge iri £400 miriyoni, zvichienzaniswa negore ra2019. Yaive £351 miriyoni. Imwe kambani huru yemapakeji, Mondi, yakawedzera purofiti yayo ne3 muzana, inopfuura kaviri purofiti yayo muhafu yekutanga yegore, kunyangwe paine matambudziko asina kugadziriswa mubhizinesi rayo rekuRussia rine minzwa.
Zvakabuda mukutengeserana kwaDesma muna Gumiguru hazvina zvakawanda, asi zvakataura nezve "huwandu hwakaderera zvishoma hwemabhokisi emarata akafanana". Saizvozvowo, kukura kwakasimba kweSmurf Kappa hakusi iko kwekutengesa mabhokisi akawanda - kutengeswa kwayo kwemabhokisi emarata kwakadzikama mumwedzi mipfumbamwe yekutanga ya2022 uye kwakatodzikira ne3% mukota yechitatu. Kusiyana neizvi, hofori idzi dzinowedzera purofiti yemabhizinesi nekukwidza mitengo yezvigadzirwa.
Pamusoro pezvo, huwandu hwekutengeserana hahuratidzike kunge hwakavandudzika. Mukufona kwemari yemwedzi uno, CEO weSmurfi Kappa Tony Smurphy akati: "Huwandu hwekutengeserana mukota yechina hwakafanana zvikuru nezvatakaona mukota yechitatu. Zviri kukwira. Ehe, ndinofunga kuti mimwe misika yakaita seUK neGermany yanga isina kugadzikana kwemwedzi miviri kana mitatu yapfuura."
Izvi zvinomutsa mubvunzo wekuti: chii chichaitika kuindasitiri yemabhokisi emakongiri muna 2023? Kana musika nevatengi vachida marongiri emakongiri vakatanga kudzika, vagadziri vemarongiri vanogona kuramba vachikwidza mitengo kuti vawane purofiti yakakwira here? Vaongorori vakafadzwa nekuvandudzwa kwakaitwa neSmurfKappa tichifunga nezvemamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara uye kutumirwa kwemakatoni kusina kusimba kwakashumwa munyika. Panguva imwe chete, Smurfi Kappa akasimbisa kuti boka iri raive "nekuenzanisa kwakasimba zvikuru negore rapfuura, nhanho yatagara tichifunga kuti haigone kuenderera mberi".
Zvisinei, vanoisa mari havana chokwadi nazvo. Migove yeSmurfi Kappa yakaderera ne25% pane panguva iyo denda rakanyanya kupararira, uye yaDesmar yakaderera ne31%. Ndiani ane chokwadi? Kubudirira hakungotsamiri pakutengeswa kwemakadhibhokisi nemabhodhi chete. Vaongorori vekuJefferies vanofanotaura kuti mitengo yemabhodhi emidziyo inoshandiswazve ichadzikira kana paine kudiwa kushoma, asiwo vanosimbisa kuti mari yemapepa nemagetsi ari kudererawo, nekuti izvi zvinorevawo kuti mutengo wekugadzira mapakiti uri kudzikira.
"Chinowanzo furatirwa, mumaonero edu, ndechekuti mitengo yakaderera inogona kuwedzera mari uye pakupedzisira, kune vagadziri vemabhokisi akaora, mabhenefiti ekuchengetedza mari achave ari pamutengo wemitengo yakaderera yebhokisi. Zvakaratidzwa kare kuti izvi zvinonyanya kuoma pakufamba kwenguva (mwedzi mitatu kusvika mitanhatu yadarika). Kazhinji, mitengo yakaderera inoderedzwa zvishoma nemitengo yakaderera inoderedzwa nemutengo wakaderera." muongorori weJeffries Say.
Panguva imwe chete, mubvunzo wezvinodiwa pachawo hauna kunyatsojeka. Kunyangwe kutengeserana kwepamhepo nekuderera kwemitengo kwave kutyisidzira mashandiro emakambani ekupakata mapurasitiki, chikamu chikuru chekutengesa kwemapoka aya chinowanzo kuve mune mamwe mabhizinesi. KuDesma, mari inosvika 80% inobva pazvinhu zvinotengeswa nekukurumidza (FMCG), izvo zvinonyanya kutengeswa muzvitoro zvikuru, uye inenge 70% yemabhokisi eSmurfi Kappa anopihwa vatengi veFMCG. Izvi zvinofanira kuramba zviripo sezvo musika wekupedzisira uchikura, uye Desma yakaona kukura kwakanaka munzvimbo dzakadai sekutsiva mapurasitiki.
Saka kunyange hazvo kudiwa kwezvinhu kwachinja-chinja, hazvingaite kuti zvidzikire pasi peimwe nzvimbo - kunyanya tichifunga nezvekudzoka kwevatengi vemaindasitiri vakakanganiswa zvakanyanya nedenda reCOVID-19. Izvi zvinotsigirwa nemigumisiro yazvino kubva kuMacFarlane (MACF), iyo yakaratidza kukwira kwemari inowanikwa ne14% mumwedzi mitanhatu yekutanga ya2022 sekudzoka kwevatengi vendege, mainjiniya uye vaenzi kupfuura kudzikira kwekutenga online.
Vatengesi vemakonye vari kushandisawo denda iri kuvandudza mabhajeti avo. Mukuru weSmurfi Kappa, Tony Smurphy, akasimbisa kuti hurongwa hwemari yekambani yake "huri panzvimbo yakanakisisa yatakamboona" munhoroondo yedu, nechikwereti/mari yakawanikwa isati yabhadharwa ka1.4. Mukuru weDesmar, Myles Roberts, akadzokorora izvozvo munaGunyana, achiti chikwereti/mari yakawanikwa isati yabhadharwa yakanga yadzikira kusvika ka1.6, "chimwe chezvikamu zvakaderera zvatakaona mumakore mazhinji".
Zvese izvi zvinoreva kuti vamwe vaongorori vanofunga kuti musika uri kunyanyisa, kunyanya nezve FTSE 100 packers, mitengo iri pasi pe20% pane zvinofungidzirwa kuti mari inowanikwa isati yasvika. Kuyera kwavo kunokwezva, Desma ichitengesa pa forward P/E ratio ye8.7 chete zvichienzaniswa neavhareji yemakore mashanu ye11.1, uye Schmurf Kappa's forward P/E ratio ye10.4 zvichienzaniswa neavhareji yemakore mashanu ye12.3. Zvakawanda zvinoenderana nekukwanisa kwekambani kunyengetedza vanoisa mari kuti vanogona kuramba vachishamisika muna 2023.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-13-2022
