Laga soo bilaabo heerka horumarinta shirkadaha waaweyn ee baakadaha jiingadaha Yurub ilaa la arko isbeddelka warshadaha kartoonka sanadka 2023
Sannadkan, shirkadaha waaweyn ee baakadaha kartoonada Yurub ayaa sii waday faa'iido badan inkastoo xaaladda sii xumaanaysa, laakiin intee in le'eg ayay guushoodu sii socon kartaa? Guud ahaan, 2022 wuxuu noqon doonaa sanad adag oo loogu talagalay shirkadaha waaweyn ee baakadaha kartoonada. Iyadoo ay kor u kacayso kharashka tamarta iyo kharashka shaqada, shirkadaha ugu sarreeya Yurub oo ay ku jiraan Schmofi Kappa Group iyo Desma Group ayaa sidoo kale ku dhibtoonaya inay la tacaalaan qiimaha warqadda.
Sida laga soo xigtay falanqeeyayaasha Jeffries, tan iyo 2020, qiimaha looxa weelka dib loo warshadeeyay, oo ah qayb muhiim ah oo ka mid ah soo saarista waraaqaha baakadaha, ayaa ku dhawaad labanlaabmay Yurub. Taas beddelkeeda, qiimaha looxa weelka bikrada ah ee laga sameeyay alwaax halkii laga samayn lahaa kartoonnada dib loo warshadeeyay ayaa raacay waddo la mid ah. Isla mar ahaantaana, macaamiisha kharashka badan leh ayaa yareynaya kharashkooda khadka tooska ah, taasoo iyaduna yaraynaysa baahida loo qabo kartoonnada.
Maalmihii sharafta lahaa ee ay mar keeneen cudurka faafa ee cusub ee taajka, sida dalabaadka oo si buuxda u socda, sahay adag oo kartoon ah, iyo qiimaha saamiyada ee shirkadaha waaweyn ee baakadaha… dhammaan tani way dhammaatay. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, si kastaba ha ahaatee, shirkadahani waxay si ka wanaagsan sidii hore u socdaan. Smurfi Kappa ayaa dhawaan soo sheegtay koror 43% ah oo ku yimid dakhliga ka hor dulsaarka, canshuuraha, qiimo dhaca iyo amortization laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa dhammaadka Sebtembar, halka dakhliga hawlgalku uu kor u kacay saddex meelood meel. Taas macnaheedu waa in dakhligeeda iyo faa'iidada lacagta caddaanka ah ee 2022 ay horey u dhaafeen heerarka ka hor masiibada, inkastoo ay ahaayeen rubuc ka mid ah dhammaadka 2022.
Dhanka kale, Desma, oo ah shirkadda ugu weyn ee baakadaha ee laga sameeyay birta konteenarka ee UK, ayaa kor u qaadday saadaasha sanadka ilaa 30 Abriil 2023, iyadoo sheegtay in faa'iidada hawlgalka ee la hagaajiyay ee qeybta hore ay tahay inay noqoto ugu yaraan £400 milyan, marka la barbar dhigo 2019. Waxay ahayd 351 milyan oo ginni. Shirkad kale oo weyn oo baakadaha sameysa, Mondi, ayaa kor u qaadday faa'iidada hoose ee 3 boqolkiiba, taasoo ka badan labanlaab faa'iidadii ay heshay qeybtii hore ee sanadka, inkastoo ay weli jiraan arrimo aan la xallin oo ku saabsan ganacsigeeda Ruushka ee aadka u murugaysan.
Cusboonaysiinta ganacsiga ee Desma bishii Oktoobar ma ahayn mid aad u yar oo ku saabsan faahfaahinta, laakiin waxay xustay "mug yar oo loogu talagalay sanduuqyada jiingadaha la midka ah". Sidoo kale, kobaca xooggan ee Smurf Kappa ma aha natiijada iibinta sanduuqyo badan - iibkeeda sanduuqyada jiingadaha ayaa ahaa mid aan sinnayn sagaalkii bilood ee ugu horreeyay 2022 xitaa wuxuu hoos u dhacay 3% rubuci saddexaad. Taas beddelkeeda, shirkadaha waaweyni waxay kordhiyaan faa'iidada shirkadaha iyagoo kor u qaadaya qiimaha alaabta.
Intaa waxaa dheer, mugga ganacsigu uma muuqdo inuu soo hagaagay. Dalabka dakhliga bishaan, madaxa shirkadda Smurfi Kappa Tony Smurphy ayaa yiri: "Mugga macaamil ganacsiyeedka rubuci afraad aad ayuu ula mid yahay wixii aan ku aragnay rubuci saddexaad. Soo kordheyso. Dabcan, waxaan u maleynayaa in suuqyada qaar sida UK iyo Jarmalka ay ahaayeen kuwo aan sinnayn labadii ama saddexdii bilood ee la soo dhaafay."
Tani waxay dhalinaysaa su'aal ah: maxaa ku dhici doona warshadaha sanduuqyada jiingadaha sanadka 2023? Haddii suuqa iyo baahida macaamiisha ee baakadaha jiingadaha ay bilaabaan inay heer hoose gaaraan, ma sii wadi karaan soosaarayaasha baakadaha jiingadaha inay kordhiyaan qiimaha si ay u helaan faa'iido sare? Falanqeeyayaashu waxay ku faraxsanaayeen cusbooneysiinta SmurfKappa iyadoo la tixgelinayo xaaladda adag ee macro iyo rarista kartoonka oo daciif ah oo laga soo sheegay gudaha. Isla mar ahaantaana, Smurfi Kappa wuxuu carabka ku adkeeyay in kooxdu ay lahayd "isbarbardhigyo aad u xooggan oo ka dhacay sannadkii hore, heer aan had iyo jeer u aragno mid aan waari karin".
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, maalgashadayaashu aad bay uga shakisan yihiin. Saamiyada Smurfi Kappa ayaa 25% ka hooseeya xilligii ugu sarreeyay ee masiibada, Desmar-na waxay hoos u dhacday 31%. Yaa sax ah? Guuluhu kuma xirna oo keliya iibinta kartoonnada iyo looxyada. Falanqeeyayaasha Jefferies waxay saadaalinayaan in qiimaha looxyada weelka dib loo warshadeeyay uu hoos u dhici doono marka la eego baahida yar ee macro, laakiin sidoo kale waxay ku nuuxnuuxsanayaan in kharashka warqadda qashinka ah iyo tamarta uu sidoo kale hoos u dhacayo, sababtoo ah tani waxay sidoo kale ka dhigan tahay in kharashka soo saarista baakadaha uu hoos u dhacayo.
"Waxa inta badan la iska indho tiro, aragtideenna, waa in kharashyada hooseeya ay noqon karaan kor u kac weyn oo ku yimaada dakhliga, ugu dambayntiina, soosaarayaasha sanduuqyada jiingadaha leh, faa'iidada kaydinta kharashka waxay ku kici doontaa qiimaha sanduuqyada hoose ee suurtagalka ah. Waxaa hore loo muujiyay in tani ay aad u dheggan tahay marka la soo gaabiyo (3-6 bilood oo dib u dhac ah). Guud ahaan, dakhliga ka soo gala qiimaha hoose waxaa qayb ahaan ka beddesha kharashka ka soo gala dakhliga," falanqeeyaha Jeffries Say.
Isla mar ahaantaana, su'aasha shuruudaha lafteedu ma aha mid gebi ahaanba toos ah. Inkasta oo ganacsiga elektaroonigga ah iyo hoos u dhaca uu khatar ku keenay waxqabadka shirkadaha baakadaha ee jiingadaha leh, haddana saamiga ugu badan ee iibka kooxahan badanaa wuxuu ka yimaadaa ganacsiyada kale. Desma, qiyaastii 80% dakhliga wuxuu ka yimaadaa badeecadaha macaamiisha ee si degdeg ah u socda (FMCG), kuwaas oo inta badan ah alaabada lagu iibiyo suuqyada waaweyn, iyo qiyaastii 70% baakadaha kartoonka ee Smurfi Kappa waxaa la siiyaa macaamiisha FMCG. Tani waa inay noqotaa mid adkeysi leh marka suuqa ugu dambeeya uu kobco, Desma waxay xustay kobac wanaagsan oo ku yimid meelaha sida beddelka balaastikada.
Marka inkastoo baahidu isbeddeshay, haddana uma badna inay hoos uga dhacdo meel gaar ah - gaar ahaan marka la eego soo laabashada macaamiisha warshadaha ee ay si xun u saameysay masiibada COVID-19. Tan waxaa taageeraya natiijooyinkii ugu dambeeyay ee ka soo baxay MacFarlane (MACF), kaas oo xusay koror 14% ah oo ku yimid dakhliga lixdii bilood ee ugu horreysay 2022 iyadoo soo kabasho lagu sameeyay duulista hawada, injineernimada iyo macaamiisha soo dhawaynta ay ka badan tahay hoos u dhaca ku yimid wax iibsiga khadka tooska ah.
Shirkadaha xirxira ee jiingadaha leh ayaa sidoo kale adeegsanaya masiibada si ay u horumariyaan xisaabtooda dheelitirka. Madaxa shirkadda Smurfi Kappa Tony Smurphy ayaa ku nuuxnuuxsaday in qaab-dhismeedka raasamaalka ee shirkaddiisu uu "ku jiro booska ugu wanaagsan ee aan abid aragnay" taariikhdeenna, iyadoo deynta/dakhliga ka hor amortization ay ka yar tahay 1.4 jeer. Madaxa shirkadda Desmar Myles Roberts ayaa ku celiyay in bishii Sebtembar, isagoo sheegay in deynta/dakhliga kooxdiisu ka hor amortization ay hoos ugu dhacday 1.6 jeer, "mid ka mid ah saamiga ugu hooseeya ee aan aragnay sannado badan".
Dhammaan arrimahan waxay ka dhigan yihiin in falanqeeyayaasha qaar ay aaminsan yihiin in suuqu uu si xad dhaaf ah uga falcelinayo, gaar ahaan marka la eego baakadaha FTSE 100, qiimaha oo gaaraya 20% ka hooseeya qiyaasaha la isku raacsan yahay ee dakhliga ka hor inta aan la bixin lacagaha. Qiimayntoodu waa mid soo jiidasho leh, iyadoo Desma ay ku ganacsanayso saamiga P/E ee hore oo ah 8.7 oo keliya marka loo eego celceliska shanta sano ee 11.1, iyo saamiga P/E ee hore ee Schmurf Kappa oo ah 10.4 marka loo eego celceliska shanta sano ee 12.3. Wax badan ayaa ku xirnaan doona awoodda shirkaddu u leedahay inay ku qanciso maalgashadayaasha inay sii wadi karaan inay la yaabaan sanadka 2023.
Waqtiga boostada: Diseembar-13-2022
