Kusukela esimweni sokuthuthukiswa kwezinkampani ezinkulu zokupakisha ezihlanganisiwe zaseYurophu ukuze ubone ukuthambekela komkhakha wamabhokisi ngo-2023
Kulo nyaka, izinkampani ezinkulu zokupakisha amabhokisi aseYurophu zigcine inzuzo ephezulu naphezu kwesimo esiwohlokayo, kodwa uchungechunge lwazo lokuwina lungahlala isikhathi esingakanani? Sekukonke, u-2022 uzoba unyaka onzima ezinkampanini ezinkulu zokupakisha amabhokisi. Njengoba izindleko zamandla zikhuphuka kanye nezindleko zabasebenzi, izinkampani eziphezulu zaseYurophu ezihlanganisa iSchmofi Kappa Group kanye neDesma Group nazo ziyalwa nokubhekana namanani ephepha.
Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi baseJeffries, kusukela ngo-2020, intengo yebhodi lezitsha eliphinde lasetshenziswa, okuyingxenye ebalulekile yokukhiqizwa kwephepha lokupakisha, isicishe yaphindeka kabili eYurophu. Ngaphandle kwalokho, izindleko zebhodi lezitsha elingelona iqiniso elenziwe ngqo ngezingodo esikhundleni samabhokisi aphinde asetshenziswa ziye zalandela indlela efanayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abathengi abaqaphela izindleko banciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwabo kwemali ku-inthanethi, okunciphisa isidingo samabhokisi.
Izinsuku zenkazimulo ezake zalethwa ubhubhane olusha lomqhele, njengama-oda asebenza ngokugcwele, ukunikezwa okuncane kwamabhokisi, kanye namanani akhuphukayo esitoko sezinkampani ezinkulu zokupakisha…konke lokhu sekuphelile. Noma kunjalo, noma kunjalo, lezi zinkampani zenza kangcono kunanini ngaphambili. I-Smurfi Kappa muva nje ibike ukwenyuka okungu-43% kwemali engenayo ngaphambi kwenzalo, intela, ukwehla kwenani kanye nokwehla kwemali kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ekupheleni kukaSepthemba, kuyilapho imali engenayo yokusebenza ikhuphuke ngengxenye yesithathu. Lokho kusho ukuthi imali engenayo kanye nenzuzo yayo yemali ka-2022 isivele idlule amazinga angaphambi kobhubhane, naphezu kokuba yingxenye yesine yendlela eya ekupheleni kuka-2022.
Khonamanjalo, iDesma, inkampani enkulu kunazo zonke e-UK ekhiqiza ama-corrugated packaging, inyuse isibikezelo sayo sonyaka saya ku-30 Ephreli 2023, ithi inzuzo yokusebenza elungisiwe yengxenye yokuqala kufanele okungenani ibe yi-£400 million, uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019. Yayingama-£351 million. Enye inkampani enkulu yokupakisha, iMondi, inyuse inzuzo yayo eyisisekelo ngamaphesenti amathathu, okungaphezu kokuphinda kabili inzuzo yayo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, naphezu kwezinkinga ezingaxazululiwe ebhizinisini layo laseRussia elinobunzima.
Isibuyekezo sokuhweba sikaDesma sika-Okthoba besincane ngemininingwane, kodwa sikhulume “ngobuningi obuphansi kancane bamabhokisi ahlanganisiwe afanayo”. Ngokufanayo, ukukhula okuqinile kweSmurf Kappa akubangelwa ukuthengisa amabhokisi amaningi – ukuthengiswa kwawo kwamabhokisi ahlanganisiwe kwakungashintshi ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalolunye zokuqala zika-2022 futhi kwehle ngisho nangama-3% kwikota yesithathu. Ngokuphambene nalokho, lawa ma-giant andisa inzuzo yamabhizinisi ngokukhuphula amanani emikhiqizo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ivolumu yokuhweba ayibonakali ithuthukile. Embizweni wenzuzo yale nyanga, i-CEO yeSmurfi Kappa uTony Smurphy uthe: “Ivolumu yokuthengiselana kwikota yesine ifana kakhulu nalokho esikubonile kwikota yesithathu. Kuyanda. Vele, ngicabanga ukuthi ezinye izimakethe ezifana ne-UK neJalimane bezilokhu zizinzile ezinyangeni ezimbili noma ezintathu ezedlule.”
Lokhu kuphakamisa umbuzo: kuzokwenzekani embonini yamabhokisi ahlanganisiwe ngo-2023? Uma imakethe kanye nesidingo sabathengi sokupakisha okuhlanganisiwe siqala ukwehla, ingabe abakhiqizi bokupakisha okuhlanganisiwe bangaqhubeka nokuphakamisa amanani ukuze bathole inzuzo ephezulu? Abahlaziyi bajabule ngesibuyekezo se-SmurfKappa ngenxa yesizinda esinzima se-macro kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamabhokisi abuthakathaka okubikwe ngaphakathi ezweni. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uSmurfi Kappa ugcizelele ukuthi leli qembu "linokuqhathaniswa okunamandla kakhulu nonyaka odlule, izinga ebesilokhu silibheka njengelingazinzile".
Kodwa-ke, abatshalizimali bayangabaza kakhulu. Amasheya eSmurfi Kappa aphansi ngo-25% kunasekuqaleni kobhubhane, kanti aweDesmar ehle ngo-31%. Ubani oqinisile? Impumelelo ayixhomekile ekuthengisweni kwekhathoni kanye nebhodi. Abahlaziyi baseJefferies babikezela ukuthi amanani ebhodi lamakhonteyina aphinde asetshenziswa azokwehla ngenxa yesidingo esibuthakathaka se-macro, kodwa futhi bagcizelela ukuthi izindleko zephepha elilahliwe kanye namandla nazo ziyawa, ngoba lokhu kusho nokuthi izindleko zokukhiqiza amaphakheji ziyehla.
"Okuvamile ukunganakwa, ngokombono wethu, ukuthi izindleko eziphansi zingaba yisikhuthazo esikhulu enzuzweni futhi ekugcineni, kubakhiqizi bamabhokisi ahlanganisiwe, inzuzo yokonga izindleko izoba ngezindleko zanoma yimaphi amanani aphansi ebhokisi angaba khona. Kuye kwaboniswa ngaphambili ukuthi lokhu kunamathela kakhulu endleleni yokwehla (ukuhlehla kwezinyanga ezi-3-6). Sekukonke, izinkinga zemali engenayo ezivela emananini aphansi zincishiswa kancane yizinkinga zemali engenayo," kusho umhlaziyi kwaJeffries Say.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umbuzo wezimfuneko ngokwawo awulula neze. Nakuba ukuhweba nge-e-commerce kanye nokwehla kwejubane kuye kwabeka ezinye izinsongo ekusebenzeni kwezinkampani zokupakisha ezihlanganisiwe, isabelo esikhulu sokuthengisa sala maqembu sivame ukuba kwamanye amabhizinisi. E-Desma, cishe u-80% wemali engenayo ivela ezimpahleni zabathengi ezihamba ngokushesha (i-FMCG), okuyimikhiqizo ethengiswa kakhulu ezitolo ezinkulu, kanti cishe u-70% wokupakisha kwebhokisi likaSmurfi Kappa unikezwa amakhasimende e-FMCG. Lokhu kufanele kubonakale kuqinile njengoba imakethe yokugcina ithuthuka, futhi i-Desma iphawule ukukhula okuhle ezindaweni ezifana nokufakwa kwepulasitiki esikhundleni.
Ngakho-ke yize isidingo siguqukile, akunakwenzeka ukuthi sehle ngaphansi kwephuzu elithile - ikakhulukazi uma ubheka ukubuya kwamakhasimende ezimboni athinteke kakhulu ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19. Lokhu kusekelwa yimiphumela yakamuva evela ku-MacFarlane (MACF), ephawule ukwenyuka okungu-14% kwemali engenayo ezinyangeni eziyisithupha zokuqala zika-2022 njengokubuyiselwa kwamakhasimende ezindiza, ubunjiniyela kanye nokungenisa izihambi ngaphezu kokunciphisa ukwehla kokuthenga ku-inthanethi.
Abapakishi be-corrugated basebenzisa ubhubhane ukuthuthukisa ama-balance sheet abo. I-CEO ye-Smurfi Kappa uTony Smurphy ugcizelele ukuthi isakhiwo senkampani yakhe “sisesimweni esihle kakhulu esake sabona” emlandweni wethu, ngesikweletu/imali engenayo ngaphambi kokukhokha izikweletu izikhathi ezingaphansi kuka-1.4. Isikhulu esiphezulu se-Desmar uMyles Roberts uphinde lokho ngoSepthemba, ethi isilinganiso sesikweletu/imali engenayo yeqembu lakhe ngaphambi kokukhokha izikweletu sehle saya ezikhathini ezingu-1.6, “esinye sezilinganiso eziphansi kakhulu esizibonile eminyakeni eminingi”.
Konke lokhu kusho ukuthi abanye abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi imakethe isabela ngokweqile, ikakhulukazi maqondana nama-packer e-FTSE 100, abiza amanani aphansi ngo-20% kunezilinganiso ezivunyelwene ngazo zenzuzo ngaphambi kokukhishwa kwemali. Izilinganiso zabo ziyakhanga impela, lapho i-Desma ihweba ngesilinganiso se-P/E esingaphambili esingu-8.7 kuphela uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu esingu-11.1, kanye nesilinganiso se-P/E esingaphambili sikaSchmurf Kappa esingu-10.4 uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu esingu-12.3. Okuningi kuzoncika ekhonweni lenkampani lokukholisa abatshalizimali ukuthi bangaqhubeka nokumangaza ngo-2023.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba 13-2022
