How to deduce the domestic packaging paper market under the double blow of demand and import
The recent continuous decline in the price of packaging paper is mainly affected by two aspects:
The current domestic packaging paper market environment is relatively pessimistic, the consumption recovery is lower than expected, the peak season is not busy, and the terminal demand is weak. At the same time, the entire industrial chain has excess capacity, and the inventory of the industrial chain is concentrated upstream under the falling paper price. It is difficult to effectively support the packaging paper price. Chocolate box
After the tariffs are cleared, the impact on the price of imported paper will have a greater impact, which may determine the room for the price of packaging paper to fall this round. Large manufacturers mainly use the strategy of jointly boycotting imported paper and lowering prices to smooth out import profits. The price difference between inside and outside is now high inside and low outside. The price of tile paper corresponding to flat import profits is 2,600 and 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of waste paper is 1,200 yuan. , 1300 yuan / ton.
From January 1, 2023, my country has adjusted the import and export tariffs of some commodities, among which the import tariffs on finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard, corrugated paper, and cardboard paper have been adjusted to zero tariffs (previously 5-6 %). The price advantage of imported paper is obvious after the tariff is cleared. It is expected that the quantity of imported paper will increase rapidly in the short term, which will have a certain impact on the domestic market. Chocolate box
Contradiction between high-priced inventory and weak consumption recovery
The current main contradictions of corrugated base paper are:
The contradiction between high-priced inventory and the weak recovery of consumption; the weak recovery brings cautious expectations for the future market, which is reflected in the fast-in and fast-out strategy in action, and the willingness to replenish inventory is limited.
Paper mills are generally pessimistic about the future market of packaging paper. The reason is that the recovery of consumption is not as good as expected and the production cycle of production capacity. The expectation of consumption recovery before the year led to the hoarding of paper mills, but the recovery after the year caused by the high inventory was less than the expected loss. Chocolate box
The pessimistic mood of paper mills comes from the pessimism of downstream consumption, except that the second quarter is generally regarded as an off-season by the market, and the direct downstream of packaging paper:
1) The consumption of home appliances is limited due to insufficient sales of new houses, and last year saw negative growth for the first time;
2) Food and beverages, beverage consumption will increase in summer, but paper mills feel that “orders are disappearing”, and orders for fast-moving consumer goods have decreased year-on-year; date box
3) There will be no orders for outdoor furniture from March to April 2022, and the annual order will drop by more than 30%; 3) A new batch of imported paper from Southeast Asia is expected to arrive in Hong Kong in May, which will have an impact on the market.
Market pressure brought by zero tariffs
The contradiction between the market pressure brought about by the zero-tariff policy on the import of finished paper and the resistance to price reduction in the waste paper industry chain. The zero-tariff policy has increased the impetus for the import of finished paper in Southeast Asia. It has created price pressure on domestic paper, and domestic paper mills are facing pressure to pass the price pressure to the upstream. If the pressure is difficult to transmit, it may mean shutdown from recycling. date box
In terms of import volume: it has a greater impact on corrugated boxboard and white cardboard paper, has a limited impact on cultural paper, and has a small impact on household paper imports.
Trend: If major manufacturers resist imported paper and enter China to seize market share, the price of domestic packaging paper will gradually be reduced to a level where there is no import profit (estimated at 2,600, 2,700 yuan/ton), and the price of waste paper is expected to drop to 1,200, 1,300 yuan accordingly Yuan/ton range (the benchmark waste paper import price to Hong Kong). At present, the price difference between international regions is narrowing (the price difference between the United States and Europe-the United States and China, etc.), after the import profit is equalized, the linkage between domestic and foreign paper prices may increase.
Post time: Apr-04-2023