Uthelekiso lweengxelo zemali zezona nkampani zintathu ziphambili zephepha lekhaya: Ngaba inqanaba lokusebenza elingcono ngo-2023 liyeza?
Isikhokelo: Okwangoku, ixabiso le-pulp yomthi lingene kumjikelo wehla, kwaye ukwehla kwenzuzo kunye nokwehla kokusebenza okubangelwe yindleko ephezulu yangaphambili kulindeleke ukuba kuphuculwe.
I-Zhongshun Jierou iza kufumana ingeniso yokusebenza ye-8.57 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngo-2022, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwe-6.34%; inzuzo epheleleyo ebangelwa ngabanini-zabelo beenkampani ezidwelisiweyo imalunga ne-350 yezigidi zeerandi, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwe-39.77%.
I-Vinda International iza kufumana ingeniso yokusebenza ye-HK$19.418 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2022, ukunyuka konyaka nonyaka kwe-3.97%; inzuzo epheleleyo ebangelwa yinkampani engumzali ye-HK$706 yezigidi, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwe-56.91%.
Ngokuphathelele izizathu zokuhla kokusebenza, iVinda International ithe ukongeza kwimpembelelo yobhubhane ngo-2022, ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kweendleko zezinto eziluhlaza kuya kuba nefuthe elibi ekusebenzeni kwenkampani.
IHengan International iza kufumana ingeniso ye-22.616 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngo-2022, ukunyuka kwe-8.8% unyaka nonyaka; inzuzo eya kubanini bezabelo zenkampani iza kuba yi-1.925 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, ukwehla kwe-41.2% unyaka nonyaka.
ibhokisi yekhuki
Ngokwembono yomlinganiselo wengeniso, ishishini leetawuli zephepha belisoloko lishishini eliphambili leHengan International. Ngo-2022, eli shishini leHengan International liza kusebenza kakuhle ngokwenene. Ngo-2022, ingeniso yentengiso yeshishini leetawuli zephepha leHengan International iza kunyuka malunga ne-24.4% ukuya kwi-12.248 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ebalelwa malunga ne-54.16% yengeniso iyonke yeqela; yayiyi-9.842 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan kwixesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, ebalelwa kwi-47.34%.
Xa sijonga iingxelo zonyaka zika-2022 ezivezwe ziinkampani ezintathu zephepha, ukwehla kokusebenza kubangelwa kakhulu kukunyuka okukhulu kweendleko zezinto eziluhlaza.
Idatha yokubeka esweni yeSunSirs ibonisa ukuba ukusukela ngo-2022, amaxabiso asezantsi e-softwood pulp kunye ne-hardwood pulp, izinto eziluhlaza ze-wood pulp, aye anyuka ngokunyuka. Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lemarike le-softwood pulp eShandong liye lanyuka laya kwi-7750 yuan/ton, kwaye i-hardwood pulp iye yanyuka yaya kwi-6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Phantsi koxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza, ukusebenza kweenkampani ezinkulu zephepha nako kuye kwehla, kwaye eli shishini lisajongene nemingeni emikhulu.
01. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunzima ukukunciphisa ukunyuka kwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo
Izinto ezisetyenziswa kwinkqubo yokuvelisa iphepha lethishu ziquka i-pulp, izongezo zeekhemikhali kunye nezinto zokupakisha. Phakathi kwazo, i-pulp ithatha i-50%-70% yeendleko zemveliso, kwaye ishishini lokuvelisa i-pulp lelona shishini liphambili nelibaluleke kakhulu kushishino lwephepha lasekhaya. Njengezinto ezisetyenziswa kwihlabathi liphela, ixabiso le-pulp lichaphazeleka kakhulu ngumjikelo wezoqoqosho wehlabathi, kwaye ukuguquguquka kwexabiso le-pulp kuchaphazela inqanaba lenzuzo iyonke yeemveliso zephepha lasekhaya.
Ukususela ngoNovemba ka-2020, amaxabiso e-pulp aqhubekile nokunyuka. Ekupheleni kuka-2021, ixabiso le-pulp linyuke laya kwi-5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, kwaye ekupheleni kuka-2022, lanyuka laya kwi-7,400-7,800 yuan/ton.
Ukuze kujongwane nokunyuka kwamaxabiso eendleko zezinto eziluhlaza, kwasekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2020, iinkampani zephepha zasekhaya kulo lonke ilizwe zaqala ukunyusa amaxabiso emva kwenye. Ukusukela nge-31 kaDisemba 2020, kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2020, ukunyuka okuqokelelweyo kwephepha eligqityiweyo kufikelele kwi-800-1,000 yuan/ton, kwaye ixabiso lefektri yangaphambili linyuke ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphantsi le-5,500-5,700 yuan/ton ukuya phantse kwi-7,000 yuan/ton. , ixabiso lefektri yangaphambili yeXinxiangyin lifikelele kwi-12,500 yuan/ton.
Ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli 2021, iinkampani ezifana neZhongshun Cleanroom kunye neVinda International zaqhubeka nokunyusa amaxabiso.
itshokholethi zebhokisi
UZhongshun Jierou wathi kwileta yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngelo xesha ukuba amaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza aqhubeka nokunyuka, kwaye iindleko zemveliso kunye neendleko zokusebenza zenkampani ziyaqhubeka nokunyuka. I-Vinda International (eBeijing) ikwathi ngenxa yokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza, iindleko zemveliso zinyuke kakhulu, kwaye iceba ukulungisa amaxabiso kwezinye iimveliso zophawu lweVinda ukususela nge-1 ka-Epreli.
Emva koko, kwikota yokuqala ka-2022, iZhongshun Jierou yaqala ukunyusa amaxabiso kwakhona, yaza yaqhubeka ngamanqanaba. Ukususela kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, iZhongshun Jierou yanyusa amaxabiso eemveliso zayo ezininzi.
Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuqhubekayo kweenkampani zephepha akuzange kukhokelele ekwandeni okukhulu kwendlela esebenza ngayo inkampani. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, indlela esebenza ngayo inkampani yehla ngenxa yokunyuka kweendleko.
ikhukhi yebhokisi yekhekhe
Ukususela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2022, ingeniso yeZhongshun Jierou iya kuba yi-7.824 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-9.15 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-8.57 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ngokwahlukeneyo, kunye nenzuzo epheleleyo ye-906 yezigidi zeeyuan, i-581 yezigidi zeeyuan, kunye ne-349 yezigidi zeeyuan, kunye nemida yenzuzo iyonke ye-41.32% kunye ne-3.592 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokwahlukeneyo. %, 31.96%, kunye nenzala epheleleyo yayiyi-11.58%, 6.35%, kunye ne-4.07%, ngokwahlukeneyo.
Ingeniso yeVinda International ukususela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2022 iya kuba yi-13.897 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-15.269 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-17.345 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye nenzuzo epheleleyo ye-1.578 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-1.34 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-631 yezigidi zeeyuan. 28.24%, kwaye amazinga enzala apheleleyo ebeyi-11.35%, 8.77%, kunye ne-3.64%, ngokwahlukeneyo.
Ukususela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2022, ingeniso yeHengan International iza kuba yi-22.374 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-20.79 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-22.616 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokwahlukeneyo, kwaye ishishini lezicubu liza kubalelwa kwi-46.41%, 47.34%, kunye ne-54.16% ngokwahlukeneyo; inzuzo epheleleyo iya kuba yi-4.608 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan kunye ne-3.29 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokwahlukeneyo, i-1.949 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan; inzuzo iyonke yayiyi-42.26%, i-37.38%, kunye ne-34% ngokwahlukeneyo, kwaye inzuzo epheleleyo yayiyi-20.6%, i-15.83%, kunye ne-8.62%.
Kwiminyaka emithathu edlulileyo, nangona iinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zephepha zasekhaya ziqhubekile nokunyusa amaxabiso, kusenzima ukulungisa iindleko ezikhulayo, kwaye ukusebenza kwenkampani kunye nenzuzo yayo kuqhubekile nokuhla.
ibhokisi yelekese yenyanga
02. Inqanaba lokusebenza kwe-inflection lisenokufika kungekudala
Ngomhla we-19 ku-Epreli, uZhongshun Jierou ukhuphe ingxelo yakhe yokuqala yekota ka-2023. Esi sibhengezo sibonisa ukuba kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, ingeniso yokusebenza yenkampani yayiyi-2.061 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, ukunyuka konyaka nge-9.35%; inzuzo epheleleyo ebangelwa ngabaninizabelo beenkampani ezidwelisiweyo yayiyi-89.44 yezigidi zeerandi, ukwehla konyaka nge-32.93%.
Ngokwembono yekota yokuqala ka-2023, ukusebenza kwenkampani akubuyelanga umva.
Nangona kunjalo, xa sijonga indlela amaxabiso e-pulp ahamba ngayo, kukho iimpawu zokuba nethemba. Ngokwedatha eqhubekayo yamandla aphambili e-pulp, amandla aphambili e-pulp aqhubekile nokunyuka ukusuka kwi-4252 yuan/ton nge-3 kaFebruwari 2020 ukuya kwi-7652 yuan/ton nge-1 kaMatshi 2022. Emva koko, yatshintsha kancinci, kodwa yahlala malunga ne-6700 yuan/ton. Nge-12 kaDisemba 2022, amandla aphambili e-pulp aqhubekile nokunyuka ukuya kwi-7452 yuan/ton, yaza yaqhubeka nokwehla. Ukusukela nge-23 ka-Epreli 2023, amandla aphambili e-pulp aqhubekile nokuba yi-5208 yuan/ton, eye yehla nge-30.11% ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu langaphambili.
Ukuba ixabiso le-pulp ligcinwa kweli nqanaba ngo-2023, liya kufana kakhulu nelesiqingatha sokuqala sika-2019.
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2019, izinga lenzuzo iyonke leZhongshun Jierou laliyi-36.69%, kwaye izinga lenzuzo iyonke laliyi-8.66%; izinga lenzuzo iyonke leVinda International laliyi-27.38%, kwaye izinga lenzuzo iyonke laliyi-4.35%; izinga lenzuzo iyonke leHengan International laliyi-37.04%, kwaye izinga lenzuzo iyonke laliyi-17.67%. Ngokwale mbono, ukuba ixabiso lepulp ligcinwa limalunga ne-5,208 yuan/ton ngo-2023, izinga lenzala iyonke leenkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zephepha lasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba linyuke kakhulu, kwaye ukusebenza kwazo kuya kubangela utshintsho olukhulu.
I-CITIC Securities iqikelela ukuba kumjikelo wokwehla kwamaxabiso e-pulp ukusuka ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2020, iikowuteshini zangaphandle ze-softwood pulp/hardwood pulp ziya kuba phantsi njenge-US$570/450/ton. Ukususela ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2020 nakwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2021, i-Vinda International'Inzuzo epheleleyo iya kuba yi-7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, izinga lenzala elipheleleyo leZhongshun Jierou yi-9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% ngokulandelanayo, kwaye izinga lenzuzo yokusebenza kweshishini lezicubu laseHengan International yi-7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Kwikota yesine ka-2022, inzuzo epheleleyo yeVinda International kunye neZhongshun Jierou iya kuba yi-0.4% kunye ne-3.1% ngokulandelelana. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022, inzuzo yokusebenza yeshishini le-Hengan International lokuthunga iitawuli zephepha iya kuba yi-2.6%. Amashishini aza kugxila ekubuyiseleni inzuzo, imizamo yokukhuthaza ukuthengisa kulindeleke ukuba ilawulwe ngaphakathi koluhlu oluthile, kwaye amaxabiso esiphelo azinzile..ibhokisi yelekese yenyanga
Xa kujongwa imeko yokhuphiswano (umthamo omtsha wemveliso yephepha lethishu ngo-2020/2021 yi-1.89/2.33 yezigidi zeetoni) kunye nesicwangciso samaxabiso esiphambili, i-CITIC Securities iqikelela ukuba izinga lenzuzo yephepha lethishu eliphambili kulo mjikelo wokwehla kwamaxabiso e-pulp kulindeleke ukuba libuyele kwi-8%-10% %.
Okwangoku, amaxabiso e-pulp angene kumjikelo wehla. Phantsi kwale mvelaphi, iinkampani zephepha zasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba zizise utshintsho ekusebenzeni.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Meyi-15-2023
